今天给大家分享凤凰卫视拍摄的百年中医纪录片,展现了中医百年来兴废存亡的点点滴滴,可能每个人看完都会有不同的感受,欢迎大家分享和在文下留言交流。
如果你是中医人,这是能够让你热泪盈眶的好视频。
如果你是中医爱好者,会让你对中医的认识更为深刻。
如果你是相信中医的群众,看完你会重新认识中医。
如果你是反中医人士,你会庆幸自己这一刹那的点击。
第一集 东风渐起 流芳百世
第二集 西学东渐 百家争鸣
今天给大家分享凤凰卫视拍摄的百年中医纪录片,展现了中医百年来兴废存亡的点点滴滴,可能每个人看完都会有不同的感受,欢迎大家分享和在文下留言交流。
如果你是中医人,这是能够让你热泪盈眶的好视频。
如果你是中医爱好者,会让你对中医的认识更为深刻。
如果你是相信中医的群众,看完你会重新认识中医。
如果你是反中医人士,你会庆幸自己这一刹那的点击。
Content
When manual controls are not owned by key personnel within the organization, they often will not operate consistently. This generally poses an issue because to properly test manual controls, a sample of transactions is chosen to confirm that the control has operated for a defined period of time. If the control did not operate consistently, a deviation or exception will be noted within the audit report.
Business ActivitiesBusiness activities refer to the activities performed by businesses to make a profit and ensure business continuity. The chances of non-compliances reduce when controls are effectively activated. In the case of a big concern where there is a good internal check system, the auditor may rely upon it and may, to a great extent, presume the accuracy of the accounts. To achieve this objective, the auditor is expected to discharge his duties in such a way as would reveal the actual state of affairs of the business. The basic responsibility of the auditor is to certify the fairness and authenticity of the accounts of the business. Concerning administrative controls, the auditor may evaluate those parts of administrative controls as may have a bearing on the financial information of the entity.
During these times, it may seem like working and implementing controls is either impossible or irrelevant, but in fact, in high-stress times like these internal controls are even more important. The reason for this is that stressful times can create urgency which often leads to mistakes. But with controls in place, as mentioned earlier, controls can help lower the risk that they occur or will be caught during a review. There is another major difference many companies are having to work out, which is having much of their workforce work from home. There are a number of application controls that can help a company do this while protecting client information. Below are a few application control examples that companies should consider as they continue to shore up their work from home processes. All other things being equal, preventative controls are generally superior to detective controls.
Audit Services can consult with you on implementing appropriate internal controls. Luckily, material weaknesses can be avoided with a comprehensive control framework based around continuous controls monitoring. No Pathlock customer has ever filed for a material weakness related to weak or ineffective internal controls. This includes financial transaction documentation, procurement processes, product design projects, product testing, and internal audits. Before you can inspect procedures to discover weaknesses, you need a full inventory of the processes currently in place. Because accurate financial data requires technological interaction between platforms, loss of financial inputs can skew reporting and muddle audits.
Error Handling – to ensure that errors detected at any stage of processing receive prompt corrective action and are reported to the appropriate level of management. Performance management of the subordinates is also an integral part of many managerial positions. Further down the chain of command, supervision controls are exercised with respect to day-to-day transactions. Organization controls operate according to the configuration of the organization chart and line/staff responsibilities.
This type of internal control usually begins by detecting undesirable outcomes and keeping the spotlight on the problem until management can solve it. If an error occurs, then it is essential that an employee follow procedures that have been put into place to correct the mistake. Examples of corrective internal accounting controls include physical audits and physically tracking assets to reveal well-hidden discrepancies. Implementing a quality improvement team can be a great way to address ongoing problems and to correct processes.
Failure to provide documented evaluations could complicate later disciplinary processes. When duties cannot be sufficiently segregated due to the small size of a unit, it is important that mitigating controls, such as a detailed supervisory review of the activities, be put in place to reduce risks.
Companies view and use these controls as an “interlocking set of activities,” ensuring redundancy beyond normative operating procedures within an organization. Assets are safeguarded, errors are minimizable, and operations are conducted in a manner befitting the company. Our goal is to provide you with information that will allow you to internally assess your operations and determine if your department has reasonable internal controls in place. Implementation of the internal controls determined to be necessary upon completion of a CSA will enable you to establish a positive control environment. Control activities- this evaluate various procedures and policies that help in ensuring that necessary actions are taken to address the factors that hinder the achievement of the organization`s objectives. These include the review of performance, processing of information physical security and controls and lastly segregation of duties.
If individuals or machines identify the risk at a prior stage, this fourth component allows controlling the procedures by taking necessary actions. Such steps include performance reviewing, setting up physical controls, delegating tasks, processing of information, etc. The first thing https://accountingcoaching.online/ to ensure that the companies’ controls work perfectly is an appropriate control environment. This is what sets the conscious levels, making everyone from top management to staff members follow and keep a check on the policies, procedures, principles, and technology deployed.
Certain control activities take place in centralized functions (e.g., Accounting, Sponsored Financial Services), while others occur in distributed units (e.g., department or business service center transaction reviews and approvals). To ensure that identified risks are addressed, you must understand where a given control takes place. For example, business service centers and the units they support must maintain service-level agreements that detail key responsibilities for financial controls between the unit and the service center. Internal controls are intended to prevent errors and irregularities, identify problems and ensure that corrective action is taken. In many cases, process owners within your department perform controls and interact with the control structure on a daily basis, sometimes without even realizing it because controls are built into operations.
During the review of internal controls, it can become obvious that a process is working as expected or at times the operating effectiveness of controls can prove to have failures. This allows management to determine if a different process is required to better meet company objectives. Internal audit controls play a critical role in achieving these objectives by providing assurance that internal controls are adequate and functioning properly. Internal audit can provide this assurance through various activities such as testing, monitoring, and evaluating internal controls. By doing so, an internal audit can help ensure that an organization’s financial and operational objectives are met. Advances in technology and data analysis have led to the development of numerous tools which can automatically evaluate the effectiveness of internal controls.
This is a significant issue for publicly-held companies, which spend inordinate amounts on annual audits and quarterly reviews by their auditors. Once effective procedures can become less effective due to the arrival of new personnel, varying effectiveness of training and supervision, time and resources constraints, or additional pressures. Furthermore, circumstances for which the internal control system was originally designed also may change.
Application controls which are also known as automated controls have a few benefits. One benefit is that because the control is the result of a configuration, they generally do rely on an individual to operate consistently.
Controls can be evaluated and improved to make a business operation run more effectively and efficiently. For example, automating controls that are manual in nature can save costs and improve transaction What Are the Types of Internal Controls? processing. If the internal control system is thought of by executives as only a means of preventing fraud and complying with laws and regulations, an important opportunity may be missed.
Controls can either bepreventative, deterring fraud and mistakes, ordetective, identifying issues after they have happened. Working in unison they can remedy existing problems and help to avoid future ones to strengthen ongoing business activities. Authorization should always be obtained from a higher-level supervisor of the employee. This would include Department Heads, Directors, Vice Presidents, Deans, etc. who ordinarily would have signatory authority over such transactions.
Authorization of transactions – review of particular transactions by an appropriate person. Low specifies that the client’s internal control system is strong, and maximum specifies that the controls are virtually useless. This is derived from the process specified by the management to run an operation or function and also integrated with other management functions.
Internal controls help control costs by catching and curtailing unnecessary spending to ensure better company health. Tradeoffs are typical, but a company must expect them to dissuade lower morale and improve internal control mechanisms. Internal auditors routinely examine all processes, looking for correctable failings with either new controls or tweaks of existing controls. Monitoring-these include the assessment of the performance of quality control over time. For example, an administrative control is regular backups of critical systems. If a breach occurs, you will only be able to retrieve the data from the time of the last backup. A data backup control is useless if the organization does not back data regularly, or does not verify that backups can be successfully recovered.
Monitoring Operations is essential to verify that controls are operating properly. Reconciliations, confirmations, and exception reports can provide this type of information. Ensure compliance – Internal controls help to ensure the University is in compliance with the many federal, state and local laws and regulations affecting the operations of our business. Effective internal control ensures that TU follows all laws, regulations, and policies. It also ensures that TU operates in a fiscally responsible manner and functions efficiently.
Finally, the monitoring controls deal with the management’s assessment for the quality of internal controls for the purpose of determining which controls need modification. An example of this in larger companies is the work performed by internal auditors. Matching the goods received note to the purchase order and supplier invoice prior to issuing payment is a good way to prevent fraud and keep accurate records for spend forecasting and auditing purposes.
Counting cash in sales outlets can be done daily or even several times per day. Larger projects, such as hand counting inventory, should be performed less frequently, perhaps on an annual or quarterly basis. When reviewing the SOC Report, it is important to note any control deficiencies identified and determine how the unit’s internal control environment is impacted. The identity of all individuals involved in a process or transaction should be readily determinable to isolate responsibility for errors or irregularities. This is known as an audit trail and can take the form of signatures, initials, date/time stamps, computer login IDs, or other means of identification. The documents or IT records containing this information must be kept on file and available for examination for a reasonable time period, in line with the record retention policy.
Effective separation of duties divides certain actions or steps within a key process among two or more individuals. Pertinent information must be identified, captured and communicated in a form and time frame that enables people to carry out their responsibilities.
When strengthening controls, the best option is generally one that streamlines the process and makes it easier to complete a control consistently, not harder. Every individual working in the organization is responsible for properly implementing these controls. As the name implies, preventative control is the procedure or measures used to prevent any suspected error or irregularity. Detective control, on the contrary, is the means adopted to identify the loopholes.
Due to rapid technological development, and the ever-growing number of internal controls, organizations must continuously monitor security controls to ensure they are adequately protected. Regular monitoring is essential for verifying the effectiveness of controls and exposing weaknesses that a malicious actor could exploit. Organizations use internal controls to protect themselves and comply with industry standards and regulations governing financial risks. Effective controls help ensure that financial reporting is accurate and adequately addresses investment, capital and credit requirements. They include a wide range of activities that occur throughout the organization, by supervisory and front-line personnel. Typically, management is responsible for developing an appropriate system of internal controls, but every employee is responsible for following and applying those practices. Since the operation of these controls depends on a human, it is key that these process points have owners.
It refers to attitudes, awareness, and actions of management and those charged with the governance towards internal controls. It is extremely important because it filters down to other employees and to all other components of control and hence can have a huge impact on the company. For example, with a less committed and more relaxed tone, there is a very less chance that the lower-level employees will follow the internal controls in place. An organization will implement internal controls in order to protect themselves and their various processes from risk, ensure operations run more efficiently, as well as ensure employees follow company and legal policy. Internal controls are processes and records internal to a company, specializing in upholding and maintaining financial and accounting integrity of information. The employees in the organization may sometimes misinterpret the instruction or make mistakes thus affects the effectiveness of the system. Human errors may also affect the applicability of the system, especially in the complex technology environment.
点拾导读:在巴菲特一个月前的89岁生日,CNBC对他做了一次独家采访,让股神分享几条人生的建议。巴菲特给出了六条建议:
婚姻是一生最重要的决定
最好的投资是投资自己
和高尚的人交往
为你尊敬的人工作
忽视投资中的噪音
成功更关乎于爱,而不是金钱
1. 跟适合你的人结婚
巴菲特通过明智的投资而获得了财富,但如果要问他曾经做过的最重要的决定是什么,却与金钱无关。巴菲特说道,人一生中最大的决定就是选择跟谁结婚。
“你会想要跟你想成为的那种人交往。你会朝着那个方向前进。”他在2017年与微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)创始人比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)的一次谈话中说道。“到目前为止,就此而言最重要的人是你的配偶,这一点再怎么强调也不为过。“
多年以来,他一直都作此建议。正如他在2009年伯克希尔哈撒韦的年度股东大会上所说的那样:“跟适合你的人结婚,我是很认真的这么说。这会给你的生活带来更大的不同,会改变你的抱负和各种各样的事情。“
2. 最好的投资是自我投资
“很显然,你能做的最好的投资是自我投资。”巴菲特在今年早些时候向雅虎财经主编安迪·塞维尔(Andy Serwer)说道。
首先,“要学会更好地交流,无论是书面交流还是当面交流”,他在2018年在Facebook平台上发布的一段视频中说道,因为磨练这项技能可以使你的价值至少增加50%。
其次,要照顾好自己的身体和思想——特别是在年轻的时候。“如果我给你一辆车,这将是你余生唯一能得到的一辆车,那么你肯定会好好照顾它,达到你自己都不敢想象的地步。你会想要修复任何一条划痕,你会阅读车主手册,你会保留一个车库,等等。”他说道。“在这个世界上,你只有一个头脑和一个身体,你不能到50岁才开始照顾它们。如果你年轻时什么都不做,那么它们就生锈。“
3. 跟“高品位的人”交往
巴菲特在作家吉莉安·佐伊·西格尔(Gillian Zoe Segal)2015年出版一本新书时时接受了她的采访,当时他说道,你跟谁交往是件很重要的事。“在生活中,你能做的最好的事情之一就是,让你身边都是你更优秀的人。”他说道。
如果你身边围绕的都是他口中“高品位的人”,你就会开始变得更像他们。相反,“如果你跟不如你的人在一起,很快你就会开始被拉向那个方向”,他说道。
4. 为你尊敬的人工作
“试着为你最钦佩的人工作。”巴菲特向西格尔说道。“这不一定是10年后你会从事的工作,但你能有机会在你继续前行之际学到很多东西。”
巴菲特说,虽然在人们考虑职业发展的过程中,薪水确实是个重要因素,但“你不该仅仅为了钱而接受一份工作”。
有一次,巴菲特接受了他的导师、同时也是他心目中的“英雄”本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)给他的一份工作,当时他甚至都没有问道薪酬的问题。“我在月底拿到薪水时才发现这一点。”他说道。
5. 无视噪音
投资可能会变得情绪化,而当人们通过查看股票行情或打开新闻来了解自己一天的投资表现时,情绪化不是件好事。
巴菲特指出,没有人能够确定金融市场的走向,最好的投资策略就是保持头脑清醒,坚持到底,即使是在市场似乎处于低迷状态的情况下也不要轻言放弃。
“坦率地说,我根本不关心经济学家们说些什么。”他在2016年说道。“如果你看看(经济学家)的整个历史,就会发现他们并没有通过买卖股票赚到很多钱,但买卖股票的人却会听他们的。我对此有些不以为然。“
6. 成功不是靠金钱来衡量的
巴菲特一直都是世界上最富有的人之一,但他并不将财富作为衡量成功的标准。对他来说,最重要的是你最亲近的人是否爱你。
巴菲特在2008年的一次演讲中对MBA学生说:“无条件的爱是你所能得到的最大的好处。”
“爱的不可思议之处在于你无法摆脱它。如果你试图放弃它,最终得到的会是两倍;但如果你试图抓住它,那它就会消失。有一种非同寻常的情况是,那些把它完全推出去的人,却会得到十倍的回报。“
作者:点拾投资
链接:https://xueqiu.com/3915115654/133176540
来源:雪球
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Content
You may forget to enter an invoice you’ve paid or the sale of a service. Subsidiary entries are transactions that aren’t recorded correctly. This mistake is only normally discovered during a bank reconciliation, according to The Balance. Are those errors which involve items normally posted to determine net income realized from sales or turnover.
168 from M Mardock had been entered in error in J Mardock’s account. Reporting incorrect amount in the incorrect side of an inappropriate account. Recording the incorrect amount in the correct side of an inappropriate account. Recording the incorrect amount in the incorrect side of an appropriate account. Recording the incorrect amount in the correct side of an appropriate account. A reserve is an appropriation of profit while a provision is a charge against profits .in other words true profits cannot be determined without making adjustment for the provisions required.
Contact the customer to verify that it’s their payment and the right invoice. Transaction might have been recorded on the source document. A customer paid an outstanding $1,000 invoice in two partial payments of $500. Which account is generally used for Rectification of Errors? The accounting cycle records and analyzes accounting events related to a company’s activities. Full BioSuzanne is a researcher, writer, and fact-checker.
Error of commission when what should be a debit entry is entered as a credit entry or vice versa and as such doubling one side of an account. While other trial balance errors do exist (e.g., error of omission, commission, principle, original entry, reversal of entries), they do not affect the suspense account.
This type of misposting creates no hindrance in equalizing totals of debit and credit column of trial balance. After the determination of the correct P&L balances, the next step is preparation of the adjusted/correct statement of financial position. This procedure entails consideration of the correct P&L balance and the adjusted accounts which were adjusted through journal entries. Debtors are current assets arising in a business when goods have been sold on credit. The type of error affecting this balance sheet item may either be detected by the trial balance or may not. The financial implications occurring in the business is dictated by the type of error and the extent of effect on debtor value. This concept is substantiated by the following illustrations.
The errors which affect both debit and credit are termed double-sided errors. If the errors affect the debit and credit for an equal amount of money, the trial balance agrees. The aforementioned eight general steps of correcting errors applies to all account https://quickbooks-payroll.org/ items, be it of asset, capital, liability, income and/or expenses nature. In lesson two simplified illustrative steps of correcting the commonly affected items is presented to give the entrepreneur an overall picture of how these corrections are made.
If the difference is of a very big amount, it is just possible that the balance of a certain Ledger account may not have been included in the Trial Balance. 2) Sale of goods to Ram on credit for ₹ 420 has been entered in the journal as ₹240.
To show the accurate profit or loss made during the year by preparing the profit & loss account. To disclose the true financial position by preparing the balance sheet. One-sided errors detected before the preparation of the trial balance are rectified without journal entries. The trial balance of a book-keeper shows an excess of debits over credits by Rs.361.
Wages, $800, had been debited in the rent payable account. Rs.400 paid to Mehta against our acceptance was debited to Mehta’s a/c. A sale of Rs.4000 to Ram has been passed through the purchase book. The total of purchase book for December had been under cast by Rs.1000. Like most authors who have been in the game for years, the only signs of interest Tom got from publishers were rejection letters. After six years of trying to get a traditional publishing deal, he finally decided to self publish his first book on Kindle in February, 2012.
The amount owing by the client will still be correct in the trial balance, obscuring the mistake. Rounding a figure can make your accounting inaccurate and create a series of future errors. Either people or accounting software can make this mistake. This is where the correct amount is entered but in the wrong personal account. Paul Cole-Ingait is a professional accountant and financial advisor. He has been working as a senior accountant for leading multinational firms in Europe and Asia since 2007. Cole-Ingait holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in accounting and finance and Master of Business Administration degree from the University of Birmingham.
The total of the credit column of the trial balance is understated by Rs. 7,000. The total of the debit column of the trial balance is correctly stated. (Being cash received from Karim Rs 6,000, wrongly posted to Nadim’s account now rectified). For example, if the amount spent on the repair of an old machinery is debited to the machinery account instead of the repairs account. Sometimes, this statement is printed out along with the five financial statements for management purposes. Income statements account like revenues and expenses are listed down subsequently after equity.
The trial balance is a prima facie evidence of the accuracy of the book-keeping. The articles and research support materials available on this site are educational and are not intended to be investment or tax advice. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Appreciate the need for preparing suspense account. Capital expenditure treated as revenue expenditure if the repairing expense of a machine is treated as the cost of machinery. The current trial balance is to be compared with the past one.
An insurance expense of $2,000 that is wrongly debited to the salaries account will decrease profit by $2,000. Costing errors are not reflected in the trial balance. Column is the title/name of the account, the third and fourth columns are the debit and credit columns respectively where the amount of balance of each account is entered. The omission of recording a particular transaction does not hamper the agreement of the trial balance. But rectification of errors depends on the stages errors detected. Calculation of totals of ledger accounts and balancing of ledger accounts are to be checked properly. For example, the installation cost of a new machine is accounted for by debiting the wage expense account instead of debiting the machinery account.
I have a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Accounting, with over 8 years in various accounting and finance roles. I also have experience in leadership as well as implementation of new accounting error of original entry involved suspense account. software systems. Business owners love Patriot’s accounting software. Save money without sacrificing features you need for your business. Maone for $500 was completely omitted from the books.
An account history is a record that keeps track of all activity within an account such as trades, purchases, and other transactions. Of course, no company can prevent all errors, but with proper internal controls, they can be identified and corrected relatively quickly.
A suspense account is created when the total of a trial balance do not agree. Error of recording is subsidiary books does not affect trial balance. A suspense account is automatically closed after rectification of all errors. Agreement of trial balance means that there is no error in the books of account. If the debit column of the trial balance is short, then the suspense account will have debit balance.
Errors committed to totaling lead to errors in balancing. In maintaining accounts of transactions some errors may happen due to lack of sound knowledge of accounting principles. If a revenue expense is recorded as a capital expenditure or vice-versa it is called the error of principle. If this transaction is not accounted for, still then the trial balance may agree. Because an equal sum of money has been omitted from records of debit and credit accounts. Limitations of trial balance are the errors in the accounting process that cannot be detected by the trial balance sheet.
It is important to note that here double entry is observed. This is an account showing balances equal to the difference in the trial balance.
When the difference has been investigated and corrected, there will be no resulting balance on the suspense account. Students will note that not all errors are corrected through the suspense account. This type of error is also covered in this example. Therefore, these errors must be properly located and rectified for ascertaining the true profit or loss and financial position of the business. AccountDebitCreditSuspense Account50Cash50When you receive the full payment from the customer, debit $50 to the suspense account.
Suspense account disappears automatically once it shows no balance after rectification of all errors . A suspense account is an account in the general ledger which stores any transactions for temporarily when there is uncertainty in the account in which they should be recorded. Errors can sometimes be detected after an accounting year is over. Such errors are detected after preparation of trial balance. The errors detected after the completion of accounting year may be one-sided and two-sided errors. Rectification of the errors seen after preparation of trial balance can be made by preparing rectifying journal entries in the subsequent year only. Errors of complete omission occurs when the transaction is completely omitted from the books of accounts.
Debit balance of suspense account carried forward to the next accounting period is recorded as an asset in the balance sheet. Rs.4,000 paid for Furniture purchased has been charged to Office Equipment Account. Rs.450 paid to Ramesh was debited to Rameshachar’s Account. A sum of Rs.300 paid to Shyam Lal, the clerk, was debited to his personal account.
And there are also circumstances where the trial balance is balanced but are incorrect. It’s getting pretty confused here, you just need to note that when trial balance balanced, it doesn’t necessary mean that the trial balance is correct.
DKGoelSolutions.com has been developed by a group of accountancy teachers of reputed schools in India. Repairs on the overhauling of existing Machinery debited to Machinery Account. Purchase of machinery debited to Purchase Account. Under or overcast of a subsidiary book is an example of error of commission. One sided Errors are Located before which account.
If the difference is derived because of “excess credit amount” or “short debit amount”, debit the account with the difference amount. If the difference is derived because of “excess debit amount” or “short credit amount”, credit the account with the difference amount. The balance of creditors account is understated by Rs. 7,000. Cash received from Karim Rs 6,000 posted to Nadim. Sales return from Megha Rs 1,600 were posted to her account as Rs 1,000. If, in spite of all the above efforts, there is still a difference in the Trial Balance, a complete checking of the postings of all the entries will be necessary. The difference should be halved to find out if some figure equal to half the difference has been posted on the wrong side of an account thereby making the difference double.
For instead of deducting 40,000 from P& L account, only 20,000 was charged. Software and cloud versions are continually being improved to simplify the entire accounting process. Cloud-based systems update automatically, desktop software requires a purchase every several years to stay up to date. And make sure there’s someone knowledgeable in accounting entries who can answer questions when they arise. Set company policy on documentation procedures so entries can be made properly and accurately. For example, record reimbursements to employees when made after they’ve submitted expense reports so you know the numbers are correct.
好戏即将上演……
|作者:二水
|编审:苏睿
终于,主审特朗普弹劾案的法官定了!
美国当地时间1月16日,美国参议院正式接收了针对总统特朗普的弹劾条款,这也意味着对特朗普的弹劾审判即将正式开始。
随后,美国最高法院首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨宣誓就职,他将主持参议院对特朗普弹劾的审判。罗伯茨宣誓后,又为担任陪审员的全体参议员主持宣誓仪式。在场的99名参议员宣誓将确保审讯“公正无私”。
·罗伯茨(右)宣誓就职。
有消息说,参议院可能从1月21日正式开始审理此案。而那时,今年65岁的罗伯茨将成为全美乃至全世界关注的焦点。
秉公办案
根据美国宪法规定,总统弹劾案的审理会议由最高法院首席大法官主持。这是一个类似于“主持人”的角色,负责宣布审理会议开始、结束及弹劾结果。99名参议员在审理会议中没有发言权,但他们可以以书面形式呈现,并由大法官在审理会议中朗读。
作为美国历史上第三位主持总统弹劾案审理会议的大法官,罗伯茨可以从他的前辈身上获取不少经验。
第一位主持总统弹劾案审理会议的首席大法官是蔡斯。1868年,他主持了针对美国第17任总统安德鲁·约翰逊的弹劾案。蔡斯在当时表现得非常强势,审理过程中动不动就加入自己的意见。
1999年,主持克林顿总统弹劾案审理会议的首席大法官是伦奎斯特。他是第二位主持总统弹劾案的主审法官。与蔡斯相比,伦奎斯特则表现得十分冷静,在审理的整个过程中很少表达意见,始终避免让自己成为焦点,并适度地提醒参议院不只是陪审员。
有相关人士分析,罗伯茨很有可能效仿伦奎斯特,不会过多表达自己的意见,“罗伯茨支持任何一方的争议裁决,都会成为‘法院应该脱离政治’这一观点的反面教材。”
“守护神”
虽然罗伯茨在弹劾案件审理过程中没有什么话语权,但人们依然十分期待他和特朗普的“对决”。因为这两人早在多年前就结下了“梁子”。
一向喜欢在社交网站评天下的特朗普,曾多次公然批评美国司法部门和法官。罗伯茨就是他常指责的对象之一,理由多种多样:
罗伯茨曾有两次投票支持奥巴马医疗法案,特朗普就称他是“保守派的噩梦”;
有一次,罗伯茨反对特朗普提出的穆斯林旅行禁令,特朗普就说有墨西哥血统的罗伯茨不是真正的法官……
而面对特朗普的指责,罗伯茨一直表现得十分克制,从不回应,并按照传统在2017年主持了特朗普的总统就职典礼。
·罗伯茨(前排右)为特朗普(前排左)主持总统就职仪式。
直到有一次,一向彬彬有礼的罗伯茨彻底被特朗普惹怒了。
2018年11月,一名地区法院法官否决了特朗普主张的限制向非法移民提供庇护政策。他是由美国前任总统奥巴马在2012年提名的法官,特朗普就称其为“奥巴马法官”。
这种带有浓重政治色彩的说法激怒了罗伯茨。这一次,他选择挺身而出。
几天后,罗伯茨在最高法院发布的一份声明中说:“我们不存在有奥巴马还是特朗普的法官问题,更没有布什或克林顿的法官。我们所拥有的是一群非常敬业的国家法官,他们尽其所能,与出现在他们面前的当事人平起平坐。”
尽管声明中没有点名批评特朗普的言论,但人们都看得出,罗伯茨说的这些话正是对特朗普“奥巴马法官”这一说法的回应。
你说我可以,但是你不可以抨击我热爱的职业!罗伯茨正面硬刚特朗普的作风,为自己圈了不少粉。
其实,早在15年前,他就曾因司法体系不应受到党派政治干扰的言论而成为全美焦点。
当时,他在最高法院确认听证会上对参议员们说,法官应该像棒球裁判一样,只负责判定投球和击球,“没有人去棒球场是为了看裁判的”。
他还不止一次表明,最高法院法官不分派系,亦不服务任何政党,只会审视和诠释法律,忧虑公众因法官提名过程中的争议对法院留下错误印象。
除了为行业发声,罗伯茨还会在每年元旦以首席大法官的名义为法官们争取加薪。
原来,美国法官薪酬标准已多年未变,不仅跟不上通货膨胀速度,还拉大了法官与其他行业的收入差距,相当于变相降低了法官待遇。如此一来,法官职业吸引不到优秀人才,杰出的法官也纷纷离职,无法确保司法公正。
这么一看,罗伯茨简直就是美国司法部门的“守护神”!
毒舌鸡汤走红网络
能坐上首席大法官的位置,这位美国司法界大牛的人生履历自然也是牛到起飞。
出生于工人家庭的罗伯茨,24岁时从哈佛大学法学系毕业,并在2年后成为里根总统任内首任司法部长的助手,时常出入白宫。
2005年9月,罗伯茨由小布什总统提名,参议院批准通过,就任美国联邦最高法院的第17任首席大法官,成为美国两个世纪以来最年轻的首席大法官。
当时,罗伯茨的提名仪式在美国各大电视台直播。当小布什宣布提名时,罗伯茨4岁的儿子小杰克突然跑出来“抢镜”,在镜头前手舞足蹈,各种嗨皮。
·在罗伯茨(左一)的提名仪式上,杰克(右三)在前面乱舞。
第二天,杰克“乱舞”的视频传遍全美,人们纷纷猜测这是什么新奇舞步。最后还是罗伯茨这个法官老爸给大家揭了秘:“他跳的不是舞蹈,只是在模仿蜘蛛侠‘嗖嗖嗖’发射蜘蛛网罢了。”
平时严肃的大法官竟如此通晓顽皮儿子的梗,大家都被罗伯茨暖哭了。
更让人窝心的是,杰克和妹妹虽是罗伯茨和妻子领养的孩子,但备受夫妻俩宠爱。他们把杰克送入了美国卡迪根山中学读书。这是一所著名的男子“贵族私立学校”,每年光学费和住宿费就高达4万美元(约合28万元人民币)。
2017年,罗伯茨受邀参加杰克的初中毕业典礼,并作为家长代表致辞,没想到却因这一番“狠话”意外走红网络。
在演讲中,他强调“谦逊”的意义,告诉孩子们要平易近人,而不是依仗特权恃宠而骄。而这些建议对于来自“贵族”家庭的孩子们来说,显得尤为重要。
整段演讲让人受益匪浅,环环节选了一些片段,你们感受一下:
“我希望在未来岁月中,你能时不时地遭遇不公,唯有如此,你才能懂得公正的价值。
我希望你尝到背叛的滋味,这样你才能领悟到忠诚之重要。
抱歉,我还希望你们时常感到孤独,唯有如此,你才不会视朋友为理所当然。
我祝你们偶尔运气不佳,这样你才会意识到机遇在人生中扮演的角色,从而明白你的成功并非天经地义,而他人的失败也不是命中注定。
当你偶尔失败时,我愿你的对手时不时地会幸灾乐祸。这样你才能懂得互相尊重的竞技精神的重要。
我希望你常被人无视,唯有如此,你才能懂得倾听他人有多重要。也祝你感受切肤之痛,从而学会同情。
无论我祝愿与否,这些事都会发生。而你能否从中获益,则取决于你能否参透这些苦难中传递的信息。”
演讲的最后,罗伯茨还用诺奖获得者、美国民谣教父鲍勃·迪伦的一首《永远年轻》结束致辞。
人品正直、个性又暖,这样的罗伯茨遭遇不按常理出牌的特朗普,又将产生怎样的“火花”,也许好戏正要开始……
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In this case, the Planner will be required to refund any money previously provided by the Client as a budget for the event or other. So to mitigate this risk, map out exactly what you’ll be offering and then add that to your contract for your client to review and sign. It just means that if your client wants to venture outside the scope of the project, you can refer back to your agreement to remind your client that they’re going out of scope. One of the most painful experiences you can have as an events coordinator is where a client keeps asking for you to do more than what was initially agreed on.
Record event deposits and display to customers on confirmations and invoices. Ensure your customers know the value of your services even when you don’t charge them. Display line-item discounts so they know how much they are saving with you. To fulfill all the demands, you provide various services to make your client happy. You need an invoice that is flexible enough to capture all the special requirements for each event, while still being clear and easy-to-understand for your customers.
These tools integrate with our event websites and embeddable event registration forms as well as our event check-in app for an on-site, point-of-sale payment solution. And unlike other major event registraion providers like Eventbrite, we do not charge additional service fees . Simply download the event planner invoice template, edit the details to perfection and send to your clients.
We’ll determine the number of staff needed based on several factors, such as location, logistics, guest list size, and how much time is needed. From our first planning session to your last dance of the night, our goal is to provide you with a feeling of calm, joy, and assurance. Eliminate mistakes and manual data entry by taking detailed event requests for your space and resources. Save time and take even more work off your hands by trying our free automated invoicing and powerful accounting. 330 transparent png illustrations and cipart matching “Event Planning”. Here you can explore HQ Event Planning transparent illustrations, icons and clipart with filter setting like size, type, color etc. Polish your personal project or design with these Event Planning transparent PNG images, make it even more personalized and more attractive.
Simply download the event planner invoice template from Agiled, customize and send it to get paid timely and accurately. Our event invoice tool lets you build invoices with unlimited line items, tax rates, markups/discounts, categories/packages, service fees, gratuities, delivery fees and more. Know when payments are due and past due with dashboards and calendar notifications.
Using a free event planner invoice template, you can rest assures that you’re on top of your accounting. In addition, you also have your client information organized. These are just some of the perks that you can get from using an event planner invoice. An event planner invoice template will make billing clients quicker and more efficient. So, easing your invoicing process will make things much better for you. Let your customers pay in a way that is most convenient for them.
Get the free event planner invoice template fromInvoice Quickly, create detailed and precise invoices to ensure that you collect all your payments immediately in the right way. The event planner invoice is designed for the professional or company responsible for organizing a function, be it a party, wedding, or corporate event. The products and services that the planner provides can be detailed in the invoice, supplying the individual or company that put on the event with a full cost breakdown. To start, download the event planning invoice template and edit it to your needs. Blank fields on the invoice make it easy to input your own branding, outline your services and share the best way for clients to pay. With the free event planner invoice from FreshBooks, you can create professional, precise invoices to ensure that you get paid the right way. Integrating online credit card payments with your invoicing and event registration tools can increase cash flow because customers can process payments more easily, thus you get paid sooner.
We also serve as the main point of contact for all suppliers to ensure streamlined planning. We first discover the ins and outs of your organization, events, and attendees. We work with you to determine the best intersection of your organization’s strategic objectives and business events. Ultimately, we become advisers and an extension of your team. The definition of an invoice is a detailed list of products or services showing the money owed for each item.
In the same way, you also need to execute your billing process quickly and efficiently. Download this beautiful and editable invoice template to create professional invoices quickly and accurately. This does not to be detailed, but should make it clear what you’re referring to (for instance, “wedding planning”, “corporate party planning”,“concert event planning”, etc.). Breathe a sigh of relief as you now know how to create an event planner invoice. You can even tailor each invoice to be as unique as its corresponding event. You create the most awesome events and ensure they run like well-oiled machines.
An event planning contract is a formal agreement between the event planner and the client to set conditions for which event management services are performed. Start from our email templates for event planners, add in your personality and brand, and voila, you’re ready to go. Email templates can be plugged in throughout the HoneyBook system, so it’s easy to communicate at every step of the client process, from introducing your services to getting booked with proposals. Whether you charge a flat rate, collect an up-front deposit, or want to bill clients on a specific date, our event planner invoice templates have you covered. FreshBooks gives busy event planners a break with its simple online invoicing software that lets you generate professional invoices in a flash.
We review each invoice for accuracy and work with suppliers to resolve any discrepancies. Finally, we reconcile and code all expenses against the budget before submitting to client for payment.
Offering customers multiple ways to pay (credit card, check, ACH, etc.) can lead to more purchases . Use our check-in and event payment app to keep lines at the door short by quickly checking in ticketed attendees and selling tickets to walk-ups with our event point-of-sale portal. If you bill in installments, you can schedule email payment event planning invoice reminders to notify clients when payments are due. Or you can set up auto-payments to automatically charge a client’s payment method on agreed-upon dates. When you use one of our integrated merchant account providers, you always have secure access to your customers’ payment methods in case you need to run payments on-the-fly.
At Function Tracker we pride ourselves on being the most user friendly venue and event management software available. Start with a blank invoice template from Indy, then add your logo, branding, and business information to create your own invoices easily.
A good rule of thumb here is less than 5 days, with 1-2 business days being optimal. Note that it often takes longer https://wave-accounting.net/ for ACH payments to fully fund in your bank account due to the nature of banking regulations and systems.
To be a professional event planner, you must have an invoice that fits all your business needs. Agiled facilitates you to create a professional and detailed invoice in no time. Create a professional event planner invoice with this customizable template.
And track offline payments for payment methods such as check, cash or external payment processors. While event planning is your passion and work, it won’t matter much if you won’t get paid. Fortunately, creating an invoice nowadays doesn’t need much paperwork.
We ensure notes of appreciation are shared immediately post-event. When appropriate and approved, we manage the distribution of gratuities with supporting backup documentation sent to the client.
I’ve seen a quicker turnaround in getting signed contracts & getting the deposit. There are different colors, different vendor requests, and various types of guests to consider. That’s why your invoice should also be as unique as the event itself.
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An operating lease is a contract that permits the use of an asset but does not convey ownership rights of the asset. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in oureditorial policy. Record your asset and liability as of your initial application date and you’re ready to go forward with the new lease standard.
Overview of the capitalized lease method A capitalized lease involves posting a company’s lease obligation on the balance sheet as an asset. The deduction from capital lease obligation is only for the principal component of the lease. Therefore, the interest component is routed separately through the P&L. The amount of interest payable is arrived as per the payment schedule computed considering the terms of an agreement. These terms establish the interest rates, lease term, default charges, etc.
The CPA Journal is a publication of the New York State Society of CPAs, and is internationally recognized as an outstanding, technical-refereed publication for accounting practitioners, educators, and other financial professionals all over the globe. Edited by CPAs for CPAs, it aims to provide accounting and other financial professionals with the information and analysis they need to succeed in today’s business environment. Finally, https://business-accounting.net/ to adjust debt, take the reported value of debt and add the debt value of the leases. The cost of debt is the return that a company provides to its debtholders and creditors. The term of the lease does not exceed 75% of the useful life of the equipment. In all leases, the lessee acquires an asset, called a right of use , and a liability . Get in touch to find out how we can help you with your accounting, tax and financial needs.
Don’t forget to take advantage of the portfolio exception, where separate assets have such similar terms and characteristics that they can be combined into a single lease for reporting purposes. Operating leases A lease that does not qualify as a capital lease is an operating lease. A one-year lease on an apartment and a week’s rental of an automobile are examples of operating leases. Such leases make no attempt to transfer any of the rewards and risks of ownership to the lessee. As a result, there may be no recordable transaction when a lease is signed.
We leave further discussion of capital leases for an intermediate accounting text. The present value of the lease payments equals at least 90% of the total original cost of the equipment. The last two criteria do not apply when the beginning of the lease term falls within the last 25 percent of the total estimated economic life of the leased property. Standards govern the classification not just the lessee but also for the lessor. In the 2nd year, ABC Co. will calculate the lease interest on the remaining capital obligation balance, which is $31,690 ($37,900 + $3,790 – $10,000).
Subtracting adjusted NNO ($8,510.10 million) yields an equity value of $5,899.56 million. This is the DCF equity valuation output using model inputs based on the new IFRS lease accounting, where all leases are treated as capital leases on both the balance sheet and income statement. The most notable change is the elimination of the operating lease classification.
• Every period, the depreciation expense will be knocked off against the asset value. Similarly, the amount of lease obligation will also be written off as and when payments for the lease are made. Therefore, though a capital lease obligation is a hire purchase contract on the surface, it converges to replicate the features of the purchase of a capital asset.
This means that the lessor is treated as a party that happens to be financing an asset that the lessee owns. These amounts are the costs incurred at the inception of the lease and are only incurred if the agreement is finalized. This amount will be capitalized and amortized over the life of the lease. Finally, there is also guidance for when a lease does or does not exist, as well as what assets are exempt from this standard. For instance, leases to explore for minerals, oil, natural gas, or similar non-regenerative resources; intangible assets; assets under construction; or biological assets ; do not get capitalized.
The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace. The life of the lease must be 75% or greater for the asset’s useful life. These three practical expedients can save significant time during the implementation process and we see most organizations adopt them. That it is expected to have no alternative use to the lessor at the end of the lease term. For public non-profits, the effective date is fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2020. For non-public organizations, the effective date is fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021.
In the example below a cooperative starting out paying rent of $100,000 per year with a 3% increase per year over 20 years will record an asset and a liability of about $1.8 million. If they have a debt covenant on another loan this may well cause them to be in default. Some cooperatives are requesting loan modifications to indicate that a change in accounting rules will not be considered to cause a violation of a debt covenant.
Therefore, we need to adjust the lease expense, depreciation expense, and interest expense numbers to account for this shift. In theory, this would require the borrower to maintain separate books accounting for leases under the previous rules. To capitalized lease obligations record a capital lease in your business accounting system, you must first determine whether the business owns the leased item. If the lease is classified as ownership, the item is recorded as an asset on the balance sheet at its original cost .
A capitalized lease increases the total value of the assets on your balance sheet. That affects a number of ratios that creditors, potential investors and others use to evaluate your company’s profitability and efficiency.
Capital projects involving externally leased property should be treated as leasehold improvements and recorded as a “Capital Leasehold Improvement” on the lessee’s balance sheet because leasehold improvements result in a true asset addition. The leasehold improvement should be recorded and amortized over the shorter of the useful life or the lease term. Apply the following thresholds when determining when to capitalize an equipment or facility lease. Note that thresholds should be applied by lease schedule; lease agreements can be for a building, an individual asset, a group of assets, and can fall under the terms of a University-wide master lease agreement. Under ASC 842, initial operating lease liabilities and finance lease liabilities are calculated using the exact same method.
He serves as an adjunct professor of business at the University of Florida and the University of North Carolina. Strickland earned a Master of Arts in real estate and urban economics from the University of Florida.
Another of the five evaluation criteria is to determine whether the present value of the sum of the lease payments equals or exceeds substantially all of the fair value of the underlying asset. The advantage of defining the major part and substantially all using 75% and 90% respectively, is consistent accounting application across the lease portfolio. ASC 840 capital leases and ASC 842 finance leases are substantially the same. Both are capitalized on the balance sheet, and the method for doing so is similar under both standards.
Under ASC 842, the total lease expense is the same, but $239,000 is related to amortization, and $108,000 is related to interest expense. For 2018, we’ve made $324,000 in payments, but only reduced the liability balance by $216,000.
Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and behavioral finance. Adam received his master’s in economics from The New School for Social Research and his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in sociology. He is a CFA charterholder as well as holding FINRA Series 7, 55 & 63 licenses.
He also holds designation as a certified commercial investment member . The asset is of such a specialized nature that it is expected to have no alternative use to the lessor at the end of the lease term. This is primarily as a result of the FASB moving away from “rules” based accounting to “principle” based accounting. • The lessee will be entitled to claim the deduction of both interests on the lease and depreciation of the asset. Hearst Newspapers participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. Capitalized Lease Obligationsmeans the discounted present value of the rental obligations under a Capitalized Lease.
For accounting purposes, short-term leases under 12 months in length are treated as expenses and longer-term leases are capitalized as assets. In short, the accounting for a “normal” fixed asset and one acquired through a lease are the same, except for the derivation of the initial asset cost and the subsequent treatment of lease payments. The costs over the term of the lease should be laid out in a spreadsheet and the present value calculated using the applicable interest rate.
You report the lease payments on the income statement as a combination of depreciation expense and interest expense. Unadjusted for operating leases, debt represents 17.81% of intrinsic value and equity represents 82.19%.
The FASB had been considering doing something with operating leases for many years, and showing the future operating lease payments as a balance sheet liability, rather than just a footnote, highlights its presence to the financial statement readers. Some financial statement users often ignore lease obligations and can do so to their detriment — such as with Enron, which had numerous off-balance sheet obligations that contributed to its failure. An operating lease doesn’t appear on the balance sheet at all — either as an asset or liability. You simply report the lease payments as rental expenses on the income statement. Companies frequently structure lease contracts so that they don’t meet any of the criteria for capitalization and can thus be treated as operating leases. When you capitalize a lease, the asset appears on your balance sheet the same as if you had bought it.
The terms of a capital lease agreement show that the benefits and risks of ownership are transferred to the lessee. Capital leases are considered the same as a purchase for tax and accounting purposes. Operating leases cover the use of the vehicle, equipment, or other assets, making payments during the lease term.
However, in economic and accounting terms, some leases may be treated as if a transfer had occurred. If you have lease agreements in place and you are unsure how your lender will interpret the newly presented financial statements, the communications need to begin now. While your accountant can typically provide clarification when debt terms say, “in accordance with GAAP,” you will need clarification from your lender if there are ambiguous terms within the agreements. In the past, it was easy to manipulate this number and classify more leases as operating leases .
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If alcoholism runs in your family, it’s essential to pay attention to it. When we are under the influence of alcohol and someone provokes us, we don’t have the mental capacity to understand the repercussions of our actions. This is the effect that alcohol has on the brain; you cannot think straight. The problem is when someone gets stuck in this step and ignores the situation.
“Just like anything else that we don’t deal with, unresolved anger has the potential to set you up for drinking again,” says Todd Garlington, lead therapist at The Greenhouse Treatment Center. When we focus on living our lives without alcohol in early sobriety, a lot can change very quickly.
According to the Department of Health, drinking just 5 pints of beer a week is the equivalent of eating 221 donuts a year. Alcohol is extremely fattening because it is essentially sugar. It can cause rapid weight gain which leads to other health problems such as diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease. It is thought that certain substances such as alcohol, nicotine and cocaine hijack the dopamine system and stimulate the feeling of reward. Alcohol is also thought to directly affect the dopamine system by encouraging it to produce bigger doses of dopamine. My life isn’t going to get better, I may as well drink/do drugs. Ryan Rehabilitation’s team has been described as inspiring, professional, creative, and powerfully committed to serving individuals and families.
Depression – depression can cause people to lose all emotion and feeling, which can cause them to seek alternative ways to feel pleasure. Because alcohol can exaggerate our emotions, many depressed people will reach for the drink. We offer anger management services in group settings every Saturday, from 9AM to 12PM.
Your body builds up a tolerance to alcohol so you require more and more of it to feel the same effects. Sometimes, you just need a break from your mind and the intensity of the feeling. Feeling flushed or even cold, having gut distress, shaking, and being unable to think clearly are all signs of anger, Harvey says.
For many of us, alcohol became a salve and was ever-present in our daily activities. The intensity of pride people alcoholism and anger feel for a given act or trait is set by an implicit mental map of what others value, according to new …
It’s best to be upfront with your partner and let them know that your actions were uncalled for and that you feel as though you are not a good candidate for alcohol consumption. Studies suggest that those who get aggressive when they drink are also the ones that can get depressed when they are under the influence. Drinking works to increase responses to stress and can be manifested when under the influence of alcohol.
There is the stereotype of the drunken husband who returns home and physically abuses his wife, but this is an age-old convention that science has begun to debunk. Research has shown that heavy drinking is not the primary cause of domestic violence. The best way to approach an anger problem is through the help of a support group or a clinically trained counselor at an alcohol rehab center. These kinds of groups will help you express your feelings in a healthy way and provide you with tools to help you deal with your anger.
If your friend is talking about a subject that makes them angry, they could also become more annoyed if they feel you’re inattentive to their concerns. Ria Health offers several FDA-approved medications for alcohol use disorder.
The alcoholic denies alcohol is causing problems and blames alcohol related consequences on others, thus building up anger when confronted about drinking. This anger becomes a protective shield, rejecting everyone who tries to penetrate the denial. The spouse just doesn’t understand and wants to control – the supervisor at work is a jerk – the DUI was just a fluke and it could happen to anyone who’s had a few drinks and drives home. The alcoholic sees stress as coming from these outside sources, and sees alcohol as the comforter. Alcohol dependence can be closely tied to aggressive behaviors. Some people are more prone to trouble controlling their anger while drinking than others. People who are more focused on the present than the future are more likely to become angry and aggressive under the influence of alcohol, for example, Science Daily publishes.
That bouncing up and down experience is what we refer to as anxiety. The first thing that happens is that we get a ton of messages that say that we are not allowed to express or feel our anger. This might not feel as intuitive, but one of the reasons that our hurts persist so tenaciously is because there is a part of us that wants them to be healed. There is a part of us that knows that we need to be able to take care of ourselves and we need to give ourselves care in order to heal. Either way, we feel hurt, because if we don’t have what we need then we’re hurting, and if we’re in the presence of something that is painful and intolerable to us then we’re hurting. The first principle is that whenever we feel anger, there is a hurt that’s present that underlies that anger.
If your loved one seems open to the idea, you can encourage them to follow through on a program. Your loved one may be at the point where they have lost control over their drinking – which in turn means they have lost control on their anger. This doesn’t mean that they cannot overcome alcoholism, but it recognizing it as a disease is a good starting point. Sex – alcoholism causes impotence and lowered libido, making sex difficult if not impossible.
Once the physical response is lessened, anger becomes more manageable. This active form of mindfulness helps you focus on what’s in front of you rather than what’s set you off. For some people, a heightened sense of anxiety, an increase in blood pressure, and seeing spots are signs of anger. For many, the experience of anger isn’t something we’re comfortable with or used to feeling, but it has physical cues that we can tune into. Emotions can feel overwhelming in early recovery, especially the difficult ones, and it takes a while to figure out how to manage them.
If an intoxicated person becomes upset because the bartender refuses to serve them, help from a friend might calm them down. If no one can defuse the tension, they may become an aggressor, escalating the situation to a violent one. Some of the biological factors that contribute to alcoholism may also play a role in increasing the risk of intimate partner violence.
If you have less control over your actions, and you struggle with losing your cool, drinking is going to enhance that weakness. You will become angrier than you want to be when you’re intoxicated. That’s why it’s essential to monitor how much you drink and realize that if you have a problem with being angry, drinking probably isn’t a good idea. If you’re an angry drinker your friends and loved ones may not want to be around you when you’re drinking. If you struggle with an anger problem, it’s essential to address it when you are sober. But if you’re masking your problems in drunken behavior, you won’t know how bad your anger issues are.
This can lead to a condition called tolerance, in which our brain requires higher levels of the same substance to achieve the original effect. Once we’ve reached tolerance, it’s very easy for us to become addicted to the substance, leading us to make risky or dangerous decisions to further our consumption. How anger and alcohol interact need to be addressed in alcohol treatment programs as well as in psychotherapy. One of the most outward and obvious signs of alcohol abuse is irrational anger. When someone experiences anger as a result of alcoholism, they will have bursts of irritability and extreme mood swings. Easton CJ, Mandel D, Babuscio T, Rounsaville BJ, Carroll KM. Differences in treatment outcome between male alcohol dependent offenders of domestic violence with and without positive drug screens. This study aims to examine the relationship of anger with treatment outcome among alcohol users after 1 year of treatment.
This disinhibiting aspect of alcohol in effect paves the way for feelings to dominate thoughts and behavior. Alcoholism can affect a person’s personal and professional life, as well as the lives of the people close to them. But if alcohol abuse is treated in time, there is hope for individuals to make a full recovery and live a healthy life.
The good news is that there are newer, easier ways to access support for problem drinking. Online programs like Ria Health can give you access to coaching support, medication to reduce cravings, and handy digital tools. You don’t need to identify as an alcoholic to join either—whatever your goals, we’ll meet you where you’re at. A dry drunk is someone https://ecosoberhouse.com/ who engages in negative behaviors because they aren’t drinking. For example, they don’t have the coping skills to deal with their anger problems. They were using alcohol to mask the rage, and now the drinking is gone, but the anger is still present. Couples argue when they are drunk because they may have been holding in pent-up emotions.
When combined with other evidence-based therapies, such as cognitive behavioral therapy , MAT can help prevent relapse and increase your chance of recovery. Services include medical care, behavioral therapy, and support groups, along with other customized therapies. These programs typically last 30, 60, or 90 days, sometimes longer. There is also a theory that the disinhibition that alcohol creates raises the risk of violent behavior. Heavy drinkers are more likely to engage in risky behavior, which includes being violent and acting out hostile emotions, often against a loved one.
Excessive drinking has numerous impacts on your body and mind, ranging from mild to severe. Learn which signs to look out for, and how to care for your well-being. A binge drinker is someone who consumes alcohol to the point where the blood alcohol count is 0.08 grams percent or above. For men, it’s five or more drinks, and for women, it is four or more alcoholic beverages within two hours. Drinking in moderation is when you consume alcohol to enjoy it but to the point of becoming black-out drunk. Sometimes handling an angry drinker can be achieved on your own, if it happens once. In other cases, having the supportand backing of an expert is necessary.
If anger is a symptom of someone’s mental health disorder, alcohol can intensify the anger to dangerous levels. If your behavior fits the description of an angry drunk, it may be difficult to admit you behaved that way under the influence. Many people whose behavior changes drastically with drinking have a hard time believing it when they’re sober. But the best choice for you and the people around you is to enter treatment and work to become a better person. Learning to be more responsible for your actions takes time, but it’s a necessary step for individuals who have alcohol and anger management problems.
“这是一场信任危机。它拷问着美国民众的意愿、灵魂和精神核心。我们可以看到这场危机正让我们越来越质疑自身生活的意义,我们正在丧失自己对祖国同一感和目标感。”(《美联储》,威廉·格雷德)
1979年7月15日,超过三分之二的美国民众聚集在电视前观看杰米·卡特总统这场演讲——《一蹶不振》。
当时,美国进入至暗时刻,经济遭遇大萧条以来最严重的一次危机,深陷滞胀泥潭,负增长、高失业与高通胀并存,美元三次贬值,金融市场几近崩溃……
本文逻辑:
一、伟大的社会:滞胀危机因何而起?
二、尼克松冲击:管控物价为何失败?
三、卡特大屠杀:政策紧缩还是扩张?
四、里根经济学:如何走出滞胀泥潭?
1. 伟大的社会
滞胀危机因何而起?
1963年11月22日,美国肯尼迪总统协同夫人杰奎琳刚刚参加完一次竞选活动,来到了得克萨斯州的达拉斯市访问。
12时30分,肯尼迪乘坐着一辆敞篷汽车游街拜会市民,汽车缓缓拐入榆树街时,埋伏的抢手向他开了两枪,子弹命中了颈部和头部,肯尼迪倒在了他妻子的怀里,送往医院后很快便告别了人世。
数小时后,警方便抓捕了一名叫李·奥斯瓦尔德的犯罪嫌疑人,但此人仅两天后便被枪杀。案情一时扑朔迷离,古巴政府、中情局甚至副总统约翰逊都被列为怀疑对象。
一年后,由最高法院院长沃伦组成的调查组,给出了一份令人难以信服的调查报告《沃伦报告》。该报告将整个事件指向李·奥斯瓦尔德一人。据说,肯尼迪被刺杀后短短三年,18名关键证人皆不正常死亡。至今,肯尼迪遇刺依然是一桩世纪悬案。
这位出自显赫家族的总统,在43岁时便以微弱的优势击败了尼克松,成为美国历史上第二年轻的总统。
在短短两年多任期内,肯尼迪提出了一系列施政纲领,如改善城市住房条件、发展教育事业、改革税收制度、修改农业计划、保护和发展天然资源、为老年人提供良好的医疗保健、反对种族歧视、给黑人以公平权利等。
这些关于民生及民权的施政纲领,遭到了来自各方的重重阻碍,不少计划没有获得国会的通过。其中,最重要的原因是,干这些事需要花很多钱。
1961年,肯尼迪任期内的第一个年度预算就导致美国历史上第一次非战争、非经济衰退引起的财政赤字。第二年,肯尼迪又提出了1000亿美元的年度财政预算。1963年7月,肯尼迪政府的开支就达到了940亿美元,当年财政赤字将达70亿美元,而黄金储备却降到了1939年以来的最低点。
肯尼迪在任两年多获得了不少支持,虽然他花钱大手大脚,但是美国不少民众依然认为,这位信仰天主教的总统是一位年轻有为、富有仁爱的总统。
如今,肯尼迪被枪杀,美国民众有点难以接受。这位年轻有为的总统为何会被刺杀?副总统约翰逊亲眼目睹了整个刺杀过程。在事件发生后不久,约翰逊即在停在达拉斯机场的空军一号总统座机上,由地方法院女法官休斯女士主持,宣誓就任第36任总统。
第二年,即1964年,是总统大选年。约翰逊决定参加竞选,在密执安大学的一次演讲中,他正式提出了竞选纲领,即“伟大的社会”计划。其核心是保障民权,向贫困宣战。
这个施政口号来自英国政治思想家格雷厄姆·沃拉斯写的一本书,题为《伟大的社会》。最终,约翰逊凭借美国民众对肯尼迪总统遇刺身亡的普遍同情以及施政纲领,以绝对优势战胜对手,成功连任。
1965年1月,约翰逊宣誓就任后,立即提出了一系列关于“伟大的社会”的咨文和特别报告。这一庞大的社会计划,内容涵盖环保、扶贫及农村建设:
一、环保治污,美化城市,控制污染产业及工厂;
二、向贫困宣战,增加社会救济,增加就业,解决低收入困难家庭问题;
三、加强农村建设,美化农村,修筑高速公路,解决农村问题,对乡村市镇、村庄和农场进行规划;
四、增加教育福利,新建中小学校舍,增加教师薪水。
约翰逊“伟大社会”计划,其实继承了肯尼迪的政治遗产,大部分都是肯尼迪政府时期关于民权及民生方面的施政纲领。
在肯尼迪政府时期,国会考虑到财政赤字问题否决了不少计划。但是,约翰逊总统接手后,由于美国民众普通怀念并同情肯尼迪,约翰逊政府递交的一系列法案,尤其是关于“伟大的社会”的法案(肯尼迪的政治遗产),以惊人的速度在国会中通过。
这位精力旺盛的总统,仅在他任职的头两年内,提请国会通过的立法“比本世纪内任何一个总统在任何一届国会所提出的都要多”。
但是,这份雄心勃勃的“伟大的社会”计划通过后,联邦财政赤字便大规模扩张。1965年到1969年,联邦支出总共增加55%,每年增加11%,而在此之前三年每年开支增加只有2%。
其中,在关于“伟大社会”计划的拨款中,卫生、教育、萧条地区发展这三项经费合计从1965 财政年度的81亿美元增加到1966年度的114亿美元。
约翰逊政府期间,联邦财政赤字迅速上升,除了“伟大的社会”外,还有一项开支也在大幅度扩张,那就是对越战争。
约翰逊政府扩大了对越战争,战火烧到了越南北部,将战争级别上升为以美军为主力的“局部战争”。1968年越战高峰期,美军投放兵力高到53.1万人,可以说是深陷越战泥潭。
如此巨大的财政支出,约翰逊总统必须实施扩张性的财政政策,但是钱从哪里来呢?
约翰逊总统试图让美联储为财政部买单,但他开始并没有把握,毕竟按照联邦法律,美联储主席不会听命于他。
当时的美联储主席是小威廉·迈克切斯内·马丁,他是美联储历史上任职时间最长的主席。马丁的重要功绩是在1951年刚上任时,他通过协议将美联储从联邦财政部中独立出来。他留下了一句名言,即美联储的工作就是“在宴会刚开始时撤掉大酒杯”。
可见,马丁是美联储鹰派人物,但是这一次他却与约翰逊站在了一起。
1965年,马丁提高了利率,约翰逊找到了马丁,把他叫到了一间柴房,向他说明为什么美联储要按总统的吩咐去做。
令人感到奇怪的是,马丁之前亲自推动了美联储的独立,这次却完全按照约翰逊的要求做,在他任期内,联邦基金利率几乎就没有跑赢不断上涨的通胀率。
后来,美联储历史专家、经济学家亚兰·H.梅尔泽揭了这位自1951年就主持美联储的马丁的老底。他以自己的学术人格揭示了一个似是而非的“事实”:马丁一直认为美联储是联邦政府的内部部门,是政府意愿的执行者。
“美联储必须想办法补贴预算赤字。国会和行政部门设定预算。美联储就成了国会的代理人。他(马丁)认为不大幅提高利率就没办法补贴赤字。”梅尔泽说道。
事实上,在六十年代,美联储的威望很低,很多人包括马丁在内的经济学家都认为,美联储应该与财政部协同,才能支持总统的统一决策。
最终,约翰逊的“伟大的社会”和对越战争扩大化,大大拖累了政府财政预算,导致财政大幅度扩张,赤字率居高不下。约翰逊政府的财政赤字于1968年曾创记录地达到252亿美元。
1967-1968年,马丁实施扩张性的货币政策,将利率下调到2%以下,M1和M2的供应量快速增加。
在五六十代,西方主流经济学界被凯恩斯主义统治。人们普遍接受这种操作:即政府通过扩张性的财政政策及货币政策来刺激经济增长,增加就业,尽管这样做可能带来一定的通胀。
当时,最流行的理论莫过于菲利普斯曲线。菲利普斯曲线,原本是新西兰经济学家威廉·菲利普斯发明的。后来,经过萨缪尔森和汉森改良,并将其命名为“菲利普斯曲线”,并将这一曲线树立为新古典综合派的理论大旗。
菲利普斯曲线反应了通胀率与失业率负相关关系,它可以直接明了地告诉政府官僚、货币当局以及整个经济学界,要想降低失业率,扩张货币增加通胀即可。
所以,在五六十年代,美国政府大量使用财政政策和货币政策对经济实施逆周期调节。约翰逊政府,大力扩张财政和货币,以弥补巨额的财政赤字,支持其“伟大的社会”计划。
但是,到了1969年,菲利普斯曲线失灵了!
这一年,美国GDP掉头向下,跌到3.1%。通胀率快速上升的同时,失业率并没有下降反而直接飙升至6%。
美国经济出现了一种特殊的经济现象,即高通胀、高失业与低增长(增速快速下滑)并存。这时,菲利普斯曲线失灵了,凯恩斯主义者傻眼了。这时,萨缪尔森则将60年代英国一位政治家发明的一个合成词“滞胀”搬了过来,准确地形容了当时这一特殊的经济现象,但也无比打脸。
这是美国第一次滞胀危机。
二战之后,世界迎来了难得的和平黄金期。战争时期的军备技术民用化,以及前线归来的大量劳动力,给欧美世界带来了20多年的持续增长。
到了60年代末,军用技术民用化红利和劳动力红利消失,计算机、微电子、生物工程、新材料、核能技术等尚未进入应用层面。随着西德、日本经济的崛起,美国制造业竞争力下降,出口额占比快速缩小,黄金储备逐渐减少,美元地位受到挑战。
所以,这时,美国经济进入周期性衰退,内生动力不足。
但是,为了应对经济衰退和对越战争带来的巨大开支,肯尼迪和约翰逊两届政府实施了扩张性的经济政策,这样加剧了问题的严重性。
长期执行的凯恩斯式政策,投资边际收益率下降,财政扩张对投资拉动的刺激越来越小,经济增速下降,无效供给扩大;同时,货币扩张导致货币海水暗流涌动,若某一外在因素,如石油涨价、粮食歉收、进口受阻、外汇波动等,则容易点燃物价之火,造成通胀螺旋,引发全面通胀。
这样,美国的经济问题便从周期性衰退转向更加复杂的滞胀。
滞胀的出现,标志着菲利普斯曲线失灵,凯恩斯主义破产。当时,被凯恩斯主义压制了三四十年的新自由主义,各山各洞、各门各派,倾巢出动,抓住这个机会,把所有的怒火和理论武器,都狠狠地发泄到了菲利普斯曲线身上。
从此,经济学迎来了百花齐放、百家争鸣的时代。
其中,弗里德曼对凯恩斯主义的批判是最为彻底的。弗里德曼认为,菲利普斯曲线所宣扬的通货膨胀和失业之间的替换关系只在短期才存在。
他用货币中性理论解释,货币扩张给市场带来“货币幻觉”,人们会扩大产能及就业;当幻觉消失,就业和增长就会恢复到之前的水平,而物价却上涨了。
他的结论是,长期来看,刺激性的经济政策除了带来通胀,其它什么也没有。
1967年,在这场论战中,菲利普斯实在吵不过这群积压了30多年怒火的经济学家,便离开英国返回了阔别已久的澳洲。他在澳大利亚国立大学给自己确立了一个新方向——研究中国经济。
2. 尼克松冲击
管控物价为何失败?
1968年,是总统大选年。约翰逊放弃参选,尼克松成功当选第37任总统。执政后,尼克松对内的目标是抑制通货膨胀,重振美国经济。
尼克松上台后,美国的国运也走到头了,尼克松政府面临内外交困的被动局面。
当时,美国军事上陷入越战泥潭,经济上陷入滞胀泥潭,在与苏联的争霸中陷入守势,尼克松上台后提出尼克松主义,直接与中国接触,打开了两国关系的大门;同时,结束了越战,缓和了与苏联的关系。
尼克松总统擅长外交与政治,但是对经济及金融却一窍不通。不幸的是,当时美国经济告别了二战以来的景气周期,陷入前所未有的困境。更要命的是,日德经济快速崛起,美国制造业日渐式微,黄金储备越来越少,美元摇摇欲坠,布雷顿森林体系处在崩溃的边缘。
但是,尼克松显然对此缺乏足够的认识及准备,他甚至认为“美元问题是不费吹灰之力就可以轻松搞定的”。
1969-1970年,尼克松为了消除通胀危机,一定程度上实施了紧缩性的财政政策,美联储也提高了利率。CPI有所下降,通胀率缓和到4.5%,但是GDP依然没有好转,1970年和1971年都停留在3.2%的水平,同时失业率依然高达6%。
1971年,为了谋求连任,尼克松放弃了紧缩性财政政策,他对《纽约时报》说,我正准备将美元贬值。当时,尼克松给予时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯明示:“我不希望太快告别首都华盛顿。”伯恩斯虽然为难,几个月后还是这样答复总统:“请您知悉,我们今天将降低贴现率。”
1971-1972年,伯恩斯实施了宽松货币政策,货币供应量直线飙升,M1增长率超过6%,M2增长率超过12%。
伯恩斯是美国经济学界的一代宗师,是弗里德曼、格林斯潘的老师,曾是艾森豪威尔总统的经济顾问主席。伯恩斯一直都是尼克松的核心经济幕僚,尼克松对他信任有加,经济大事必问伯恩斯。1970年,尼克松任命伯恩斯为美联储主席,接替了马丁掌控着美元的铸币大权。
但是,这位举足轻重的大师,却因“过于听命于华盛顿的政治需要”,被批评为“当代最政治化的美联储主席”。
就在伯恩斯大肆“放水”之际,美元,已风雨飘摇。
1971年5月的第一个星期,黄金价格突然快速飙升,美元在国际外汇市场被疯狂做空,电光火石般的大幕正式拉开。
《纽约时报》1971年5月5日的头版文章写道:“欧洲金融中心遭受了两年来最猛烈的货币投机狂潮折磨。持有大量资金的公司、银行及各方都把不需要的美元换成德国马克……或其他坚挺的欧洲货币。”
这天早晨,德意志银行在上一日购买10亿美元的基础上,再购买了10亿美元,然后决定不再从事货币操作。瑞士、比利时、荷兰和奥地利央行马上跟进,关闭了本国的外汇市场。
5月的第二个星期,有4亿美元的黄金从美国流出,美国的黄金储备已经下降到二战以来的最低点。
8月12日星期四的早晨,从法兰克福、伦敦、东京和米兰传来报告,投机商已迫使德国马克兑换美元升至20多年来最高位。
时任财政部副部长保罗·沃尔克意识到美元崩盘在即,必须立即向尼克松总统汇报。他打电话告知尚在得克萨斯州农场度假的康纳利财长,着急地说:“我觉得您最好尽快赶回来。”
沃尔克于1969年1月20日被尼克松总统任命为主管货币事务的副财长。就任次日,国务卿基辛格就给他发来了一份奇怪的贺信,名称叫《第7号国家安全备忘录》,页眉页脚都打着“秘密”字样。上面写着:“总统已经指示成立一个永久性的工作小组,你被任命为该小组组长。”
尼克松和基辛格将美元问题纳入外交战略及国家安全层面来考虑,他们意识到美元的危险性,要求沃尔克“必须在2月15日之前向国家安全委员会提交关于美国国际货币政策以及实施的报告。”
自从1960年10月开始,基于美元的布雷顿森林体系频频遭受冲击,愈发向特里芬教授的预言(特里芬难题)走去。美元已咬不住黄金价格,“每盎司黄金35美元的神圣价位”被大幅度突破。
1965年,法国总统戴高乐将法国存放于纽联曼哈顿下城总部大楼地下室金库价值4亿美元的黄金,转运回了巴黎的法兰西银行。当时,美国财政部只剩下不到20亿美元的黄金,不到美国对外偿付义务的15%。
沃尔克的责任就是拿出解决方案。上任5个月后(1969年6月26日),沃尔克在尼克松总统、国务卿、国家安全顾问、美联储主席、经济顾问、财长面前汇报了《国际货币事务基本选择》。
沃尔克在会上展示了一张黄金官价涨势图。图上显示,当时黄金官价已经从35美元翻番涨到了70美元。如此形象的视觉冲击,让尼克松立即有一种紧迫感。
最终,沃尔克提出了一个应急方案:终止美元兑换黄金。
终止美元兑换黄金,意味着布雷顿森林体系崩溃,这让与会人员倒吸一口凉气。尼克松询问伯恩斯的意见。伯恩斯是布雷顿森林体系的拥护者,他明确表示不同意沃尔克的方案:“不管我们做什么,都不要有浮动汇率的浪漫想法。太多历史教训告诉我们,汇率的波动……会导致国际政治动荡。”
听完伯恩斯的发言,尼克松显然有些举棋不定,没有当场表态,“很好,请及时告诉我我们所处的形势”,然后结束了会议。
这次会议之后,美元的形势越来越糟糕。第二年8月,尼克松总统接到康纳利财长的报告后,找来了劳工部长舒尔茨:“我们必须去趟戴维营。”
1971年8月13日,在总统休假寓所——马里兰州凯托克廷山的戴维营,总统尼克松、美联储主席伯恩斯、财长康纳利、劳工部长舒尔茨和沃尔克五人召开了一场高级机密的会议。
会议持续了三天,会上的争论异常激烈,总统就像裁判在听在问。其中最为精彩的是,沃尔克和康纳利联手,与伯恩斯就中止兑换黄金进行论战。
8月15日晚上,会议结束。尼克松总统在当晚对全国发表了长达20分钟的讲话,以突然袭击的方式宣布了“新经济政策”:向全球宣布美元与黄金脱钩,关闭美元兑换窗口;实行为期3个月的工资物价管制,以及劳资谈判干预。
次日,星期一,纽约交易所股票大跌3%,外汇市场一片混乱,布雷顿森林体系崩溃,国际金融局势动荡不安。
尼克松戴维营会议的决定,制造了一场前所未有的巨变,人类从此进入浮动汇率时代和信用货币时代。日本金融界称之为“尼克松冲击”。
1971年10月,尼克松再次向全国发表讲话,开始了“新经济政策”的第二阶段,重点是干预物价,控制通胀。
但是,为实施工资、价格管制而成立的工资委员会和物价委员会根本不起作用。工资委员会一再向工会作出让步:先确定每年工资增加的标准线为5.5%,后又同意煤矿工人增加工资15%。价格委员会在批准了两家钢铁公司提价后不到三周,全国1500家大型公司中有三分之一要求提价,其中大部分获批准。
结果,1972年,物价在管制条件下依然上涨了3.2%,失业率也保持在5%以上。
1972年至1973年,鸡蛋上涨49%,物价“扯蛋”之后便“鸡飞蛋打”,鸡鸭鱼牛羊猪等飞禽走兽都蹦起来,肉类整体价格上涨了25%。
德克萨斯一个农场主将4万只鸡活活溺死在水塘,全国电视观众目瞪口呆。原因竟是当时家禽价格不够高,还无法获得补贴。
1973年4月,顶半边天的家庭主妇发起了一场为期一周的全国抵制肉类运动。
尼克松花了一整年的功夫强控物价,“冻结”食品价格,结果物价失控,甚至造成严重的短缺灾难。美国人在和平年代第一次发生了物资短缺,市场上的牛肉、食品大量消失了。
尼克松总统是凯恩斯主义的拥趸,他曾经说过:“我如今在经济上是一个凯恩斯主义者”。
尼克松的物价、工资管制,是凯恩斯国家干预主义的粗暴操作,体现了宏观调控的扩大化及逆周期调节的随意性,最终遭致经济规律的疯狂惩罚。
当时,弗里德曼用永久收入假说、货币中性理论及其作为统计学家的数据分析才能,击中了凯恩斯主义的根基——有效需求不足假说。
供给学派经济学家万尼斯基则在《华尔街日报》上撰文对尼克松的物价管制政策加以抨击:美国正在经历一场经济噩梦”,“美国的顶级经济学家们口口声声要对经济进行‘精准调控’……很明显,学界一直与经济一样置身于危机之中。”
然而,屋漏偏逢连夜雨。10月6日,埃及、叙利亚对以色列宣战,第四次中东战争爆发。17日,为了报复美国支援以色列,沙特阿拉伯联合多个石油输出国每月减低5%的石油产量,并威胁彻底禁运。
第二天,尼克松依然向美国国会请求提供了以色列超过15亿美元的军火。20日,沙特阿拉伯宣布对美国实行石油禁运,第一次石油危机爆发,国际油价疯狂上涨。石油价格从3美元一桶上升到12美元一桶,翻了四倍。尼克松大骂阿拉伯人贪得无厌,推高了美国的通胀率。
早在布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,美国政府与中东国家签署了石油国际结算协议,指定由美元作为石油国际结算的唯一货币。这就是我们所说的石油美元。但是,石油危机爆发后,油价大幅度上涨,就相当于美元大幅度贬值。这是美国通胀快速上升的直接原因。
不过,弗里德曼拒绝承认,美国通胀是由石油涨价造成的。在他看来,货币才是根源。
弗里德曼认为,石油、猪肉、鸡蛋等物价上涨带来的通胀是短期的,会被市场调节所平抑。但是,货币超发带来的通胀则是长期的。
在当时,他说出了一句通俗易懂的名言:“通胀在任何时候任何地方都是货币现象”。
就在那一天晚上,尼克松滥用职权对司法部进行“大屠杀”,震惊全美;31日,众议院启动对尼克松的弹劾程序,尼克松深陷“水门事件”。
1974年4月30日工资物价管制到期自动取消,加上美元贬值,物价报复性上涨。
这年8月,当经济跌入低谷时,尼克松下台了。尼克松最终交出的经济答卷是1974年GDP实际增长率为-0.5%,物价上涨12%,失业率高达9%。同时,股票遭遇地震级别的灾难,美国标普500下跌了近43.3%,为历次调整中最大跌幅。
美国爆发第二次严重的滞胀危机。这时美国人发现,全球石油价格已经回落,而美国依然深陷滞胀泥潭,滞胀问题根源在美国自身。
3. 卡特大屠杀
政策紧缩还是扩张?
尼克松下台后,副总统杰拉尔德·福特接任。面对二战以来最糟糕的经济局势,福特也是一头雾水,不知从何下手。
这时,一直倡导减税的供给学派经济学家阿瑟·拉弗(曾担任尼克松总统的财政预算员),托万尼斯基找到了福特总统的幕僚拉姆斯菲尔德试图献上减税方案。
拉姆斯菲尔德早在尼克松时期就认识拉弗,并称赞他为“天才”。拉姆斯菲尔德派其副手理查德·切尼,在两大洲餐厅,与万尼斯基、拉弗会面。
席间,拉弗拿起吧台的一张餐巾纸,掏出钢笔画了“半个麦当劳曲线”,向切尼讲述其降低税率的减税方案。
这就是著名的“拉弗曲线事件”。四年后,万尼斯基在他的畅销书《世界如何运行》中,以浓墨重彩的笔法精彩地描述了这段故事,拉弗曲线才世人皆知。
然而,这次会面后不久,福特政府并未采纳拉弗直接降低税率的方案,实施了以所得税退税支票为主的减税法令。
除了减税外,福特政府采取了削减政府费用、平衡预算等措施,美联储实施了相对紧缩的货币政策。福特接手的这两年,GDP增速反弹,通胀率下降明显,最低降至4%左右,不过失业率下降不明显。
1976年,又是总统大选年。福特总统对连任颇有信心。但是,由于福特上台后特赦了尼克松引发了民众不满,再加上居高不下的失业率,最终福特以微弱的票数败给了吉米·卡特。
卡特接手后,首要解决的就是失业率问题。卡特政府放弃了福特政府的紧缩政策,选择了扩张性的政策刺激经济增长。于是,美联储增加了基础货币的投放量,M1增速最高时达8%,M2增速保持在12%以上的水平。
在经历了1975年的负增长后,美国GDP触底反弹,此后三年(1976-1978年)增长率都在5%左右。
弗里德曼当时批评卡特政府,用通货膨胀换取就业增加的凯恩斯式需求政策,犹如扬汤止沸,无疑是饮鸩止渴,将经济推向滞胀的深渊。这其实是“医治一种疾病成为加重另一种疾病的手段”。
福特政府和卡特政府,政策不定,时紧时松,在控制通胀率和挽救增长率(失业)之间首鼠两端,疲于应付;再加上,1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃后刺激了投资银行业兴起,信贷货币趋于失控状态,M2增长率超过12%,美国的失业率和CPI依然高于GDP增长率。
1979年又到了一个关键年份。两伊战争爆发,导致石油产量锐减、油价在短短一年内涨了3倍。第二次石油危机爆发。
受此冲击,美国通胀率直线飙升,从1976年的6%上升到了1979年第四季度的12.7%,失业率依然高达6%以上,GDP增速则急转直下,1979全年增长率仅为3.17%。
1979年7月15日,卡特总统发表了著名演讲《一蹶不振》。
“总统先生,我们日子难熬。我们只想谈血汗和泪水。”
卡特在演讲中如此陈述民众意见。
“我们对(石油进口)的过度依赖,已经极大地损害了我们的国家和国民。”
“这就是我们现在面对的通货膨胀和失业状况加剧的原因。这种对国外石油的过分依赖,威胁着我们在经济上的独立性以及国家的重大安全。”
卡特将通胀归结于国民过度消费和贪婪,以至于严重依赖石油,才被阿拉伯人牵着鼻子走。整个70年代,美国联邦政府在告诫人们,要缩减需求、节约石油。
《一蹶不振》演讲结束四天之后,卡特总统性情不稳定,一口气将整个内阁十三名成员全部炒掉,主要针对的是当时的财长及其官僚集团。这是美国总统历史上前所未有的高层“大屠杀”。
清理完“不听话又不中用”的班子成员,卡特急于招兵买马,首先他找了美联储主席G·威廉·米勒来担任财长这个缺口。
如此一来,他也需要立即找一个美联储主席人选。身边的财政部副部长安东尼·所罗门向总统推荐保罗·沃尔克。但总统的回答是:“保罗·沃尔克是谁?”
此时,心力交瘁的卡特总统一时想不起来这位尼克松时代的财政部副部长。尼克松下台后,沃尔克辞去了公职,正准备去华尔街赚一笔钱养家。当时,曾任美国财长的亨利·富勒拉他进高盛一起做合伙人,另外一家猎头公司则向他开出年薪百万美元的邀请函。
不过,这个关键时刻,美联储主席伯恩斯截胡了。这位与沃尔克意见相左的政治对手,却向邀请沃尔克担任纽联储行长。伯恩斯开出的价格是年薪9.5万美元,但答应他入职时便一次性支付。
正当沃尔克犹豫之际,伯恩斯一句话打动他:“你是一块做公职工作的料,保罗(沃尔克),千万不要去别的地方。”
沃尔克在担任财政部副部长时,推动尼克松总统宣布美元与黄金脱钩,导致布雷顿森林体系解体。如今,美元遭遇全球围剿,美国陷入滞胀泥潭,沃尔克若想挽回点什么,美联储是再适合不过的地方。
1975年8月1日,沃尔克就任纽联储行长,并成为联邦公开市场管理委员会的常任委员,负责管理美国的信贷供应和利率水平。
四年后,沃尔克受邀到白宫会见卡特总统。在一个小时的会面当中,大部分的时间都是沃尔克在讲话。离开白宫之后,沃尔克对自己说,“他永远不会把这个职位给我”。因为沃尔克当着总统的面一直强调,实施高度紧缩的货币政策,且要求美联储保持独立性。但没想到第二天早上,卡特亲自打电话通知沃尔克出任美联储主席。
卡特为什么选择沃尔克,至今也是个谜。卡特的回忆录《忠于信仰》对这一“标志性措施”居然一字未提。只是从《一蹶不振》中可以看出,他在任的日子里一直渴望“美元的声音”更加非同凡响。
沃尔克不受任何理论约束,不属于凯恩斯主义,也不属于货币主义,他坚持实用主义,且以手腕强硬著称。
沃尔克就任时,收到了一份字迹潦草的信,开头写道:“亲爱的保罗,我谨对您获得‘晋升’致以慰问之情。看到您就任美联储主席,我为这个国家感到高兴,但也对您注定要面临的困境深表同情……”落款是米尔顿·弗里德曼。
正如弗里德曼所言,沃尔克遇到的挑战是前所未有的。上任第一个月,在联储内部,沃尔克提高利息率的方案以4:3获得通过。这是沃尔克实施高度紧缩政策的开始。
当时,美国通货膨胀率创下历史记录,且依然凶猛上窜,沃尔克第一次“小试牛刀”发现市场没有反应。
压力重重的沃尔克给弗里德曼回了一封信:“亲爱的米尔顿,我不知道自己是否注定只是艰难时局下的替罪羊……我在工作中对您主张约束货币发行的观点并无反对……”
紧接着就是第二次联邦公开市场委员会会议。会议通过了他提出的“小幅提高联邦基金利率”政策。会上,圣路易斯联储行行长劳伦斯·鲁斯提出改变政策方向:
“我们把利率当作传统货币政策目标是否适当?考虑到你已讲了那么多问题,再加上联邦公开市场委员会在过去多年有那么多失败的不愉快经历……可不可以换个思路?”
鲁斯是一位货币主义者,他抛出的问题,其实就是弗里德曼所说的以货币发行总量为目标。在当时及之前,受凯恩斯货币数量论的影响,美联储都以利率作为货币政策的目标。
弗里德曼隔三差五就会在媒体上批判美联储的货币政策目标有问题,应该放弃利率目标,转而盯住货币总量。
这就是货币政策领域著名的价格目标和数量目标之争。
弗里德曼的理由是,以利率为目标,会导致货币供应量不稳定,时而多时而少,从而导致市场对通胀的预期不稳定,反而加剧了通胀。福特政府和卡特政府时期摇摆不定的政策导致的后果证实了弗里德曼的判断。
弗里德曼提出了新的货币数量论。他的主张很简单,控制通胀最简单直接的办法就是控制货币总量。
当时,浮动汇率引发金融投机套利,商业银行通过货币乘数创造大量信贷货币,并通过表外流向投资银行,货币供给接近失控,导致美联储利率政策失效。事实上,在1975年,美联储试图通过控制M1供给量抑制通胀,但因广义货币膨胀而失败。
弗里德曼提出,控制货币总量,尤其是广义货币,可谓抓住了新问题、切中要害。
会议结束后的第二天,沃尔克命人起草一份彻底改革联储操作方法的大纲。一个星期后,他审阅了这份带有机密字样的三页备忘录。上面写着:“联邦公开市场委员会……将按照设定的货币目标,把基础货币的增量规模控制在一定水平上,并以此控制银行信贷的增长,这一操作方法可能导致货币市场的超短期利率发生宽幅震荡。”
沃尔克其实采用了双管齐下的办法,即盯住利率和货币总量。他欣赏经济学大师保罗·萨缪尔森的一句话:“中央银行家生来具备两只眼睛,一只眼睛钉住货币供应量,另一只盯住利率。”
不过,有人认为沃尔克“向货币主义者出卖自己的灵魂”。更要命的是,市场完全理解错了沃尔克的意思。投机商认为,美联储要放弃利率目标,等于对通胀缴械投降。
1980年初,通胀率疯狂飙升。1月21日,黄金价格达到历史新高每盎司850美元。
无奈之下,孤注一掷的沃尔克只有持续加码,他先将联邦基准利率提高到12.5%,4月进一步拉升到历史前所未有的21%。进入5月,通胀率高到15%。这一年,美国GDP增值率跌至-0.26%。美国经济进入至暗时刻,滑入第三次滞胀危机的深渊。
媒体对沃尔克无不讽刺、嘲笑和谩骂。《纽约时报》社论说:“沃尔克是一个赌徒。他不自量力,明明缺一手好牌,却押注甚高。”媒体用一战时贝当元帅固守凡尔登,形容沃尔克的紧缩政策——坚守住了凡尔登要塞,代价是35万人的伤亡。
沃尔克在回忆这段历史曾说过:“如果 1979年以前有人告诉我,我会当上美联储主席并且把利率提升到20%,我肯定会凿个洞钻进去大哭一场。”
但是,沃尔克选择了与世界为敌的方式抗击通胀,就只能无奈地接受这一切:“有时候,你不得不与魔鬼做交易。”
更糟糕的是,1980年又是大选年。面对疯狂上窜的通胀,卡特总统心急如焚,通过电视全国讲话,强调通过行业价格及薪资管制,来应对“大通胀”。
另外,卡特还忙于调节劳资纠纷,希望尽量控制工资上涨。供给学派经济学家贝利则批判这一政策的愚蠢,写了《树倒猢狲散》,还获得了普利策奖。
沃尔克这种暴力去杠杆的方式,扼杀了市场的流通性,相当于完全牺牲经济增长和就业,以抗击通胀。这也相当于砸了卡特总统的饭碗。
1980年10月2日,距离大选只有一个星期,卡特总统公开炮轰沃尔克“僵化的货币主义方法”。
卡特总统执政这几年,美国经济堪称灾难级别。除了失业率、通胀率、经济增长率全面败退外,美元面临严重的国际信誉危机,甚至巴黎乞丐都公开拒收美元。政府财政赤字不断上涨,在1980年高达740亿美元。
当时,理性预期学派创始人罗伯特·卢卡斯,在一次著名的演讲中对传统经济学做了深刻的反思:当前商界学者面临的任务是整理经济灾难留下的残骸,然后判断在“凯恩斯革命”这一著名的学术事件中,哪些是可以保留和派上用场的,哪些又是必须抛弃的。
实际上,这场旷日持久的滞胀危机,也引发了经济学革命。
4. 里根经济学
如何走出滞胀泥潭?
1980年,是关键的一年。
11月4日,演员出身的罗纳德·里根以压倒性优势,击败了卡特、老布什,成功当选总统。
卡特将败选责任归咎于沃尔克。卡特回忆说,当初任命沃尔克为美联储主席时,经济顾问就警告过我。没想到,沃尔克将利率提升到非常高的水平,导致经济衰退,成为我寻求连任的负面因素。
里根总统拿着“肯普-罗斯减税法案”上台。几年前,供给学派的拉弗曾向福特总统推销减税方案未果,这次他准备扶里根上马。拉弗是里根的多年好友,拉弗找到了供给学派的一众经济学家,拉上议员坎普(足球运动员出身),给里根献上肯普减税法案。
在竞选时,里根总统就宣称,我已经告别了需求经济学(凯恩斯主义),彻底支持供给经济学。
里根担任总统后,拉弗如愿以偿地担任了里根的经济顾问,同时供给学派的图瑞、罗伯茨、恩廷等成功进入联邦财政部。
这样,弗里德曼的货币主义成功入主美联储,蒙代尔和拉弗的供给学派则入主白宫,凯恩斯主义失去政治统治席位,美国经济决策开始被新的经济理论所驾驭。
就在大选结果出来后,正在为卡特的败选感到愧疚的沃尔克,如今又要考虑新总统会以何种态度对他。
半个月后,伯恩斯手里拿着一份里根经济决策协调委员会起草的报告,告诉沃尔克:“米尔顿(弗里德曼)希望撤掉美联储,也就是把你炒掉,然后用一台计算机替代。”在这份报告上签名的,除了弗里德曼,还有舒尔茨、格里斯潘等里根团队的核心成员。
在新总统就职大典三天后,即1981年1月23日星期五,里根设宴招待沃尔克。宴席上,里根非常老道狡猾地问沃尔克:“我接到了一些人写来的信,问我们为什么要保留美联储。您希望我怎么答复他们?”
沃尔克的回答是:“总统先生,对这些问题,外界的确有些担忧,但我想您一定能够说服他们,我们美联储运作得还不错的。不幸的是,我们是华盛顿唯一在与通胀抗争的机构……”
不过,令里根与沃尔克都没有想到的是,此后一年时间,美国经济经历了大萧条以来最为糟糕的时刻,经济深度衰退,失业率和通胀率居高不下。
沃尔克一直采用高利率政策,坚持高度紧缩不放松,白宫这边像热锅上的蚂蚁。
1981年3月30日,里根总统在华盛顿希尔顿酒店门口被一名精神病患者行刺。所幸的是,子弹距离心脏1英寸,里根没有重演肯尼迪式悲剧。
里根遇刺为其赢得不少同情票。8月4日,里根提出的减税法案《经济复苏和税收法案》顺利地在参众两院通过。但是,里根团队里的格林斯潘、伯恩斯等并不完全支持减税政策,他们担心减税会增加政府赤字。
这时,还是供给学派的万尼斯基看到了问题的本质。就在法案通过当天,万尼斯基马不停蹄地赶往白宫,手里拿着一份五页纸的文件,文件上订了一张便条:“谨祝取得税法方面的光辉成就。”
万尼斯基让联邦政府的安德森将文件务必转交给里根总统,并叮嘱:“我知道,总统先生忙于减税和预算削减,但现在的问题不是这个……现在的问题是货币”。
果不其然,这一年刚刚推行大规模减税政策,政府财政赤字就创下了新纪录。
此时,现在的问题到底是货币政策还是税收政策,白宫和美联储各执一词,双方矛盾尖锐。里根总统对沃尔克的强硬手段极为不满。沃尔克则认为,导致财政赤字的原因是大规模减税政策。沃尔克觉得有必要与里根谈一谈。
1982年2月15日星期一下午,这天恰逢华盛顿诞辰纪念日,是美国的公共假日。总统穿着一件带条纹的高尔夫球衫和一条茶色休闲裤,在轻松的氛围中与沃尔克相谈甚欢。显然,他们已经达成了共识。
里根在当天的日记里写道:“与保罗·沃尔克见面。我认为我们之间在建立友好关系方面有了新的突破,且形成了降低利率的共识。我觉得我们可以在6月之前让短期利率降下来3-4个百分点。以后在考虑降低长期利率的问题。”
所以,沃尔克用稍微降低利率作为交换条件,促使里根政府紧缩财政,并增加税收。1982年8月19日,减税法案实施一年,增税法案便获得通过,供给学派失望之极。
但是,1982年的经济实际上已经崩盘,全年GDP增长率跌至最糟糕的-1.8%。第二次石油危机爆发以来,工业生产下降了11.8%,持续衰退达44个月之久,远超第一次石油危机时期的18个月。美国最糟糕的地方在金融市场——股票、债务和信贷市场处于即将崩溃的状态。
当时,里根经济顾问团队达70多人,其中包括弗里德曼、西蒙、格林斯潘、麦克拉肯、伯恩斯、舒尔茨、温伯格以及韦登鲍姆,“八大领军人物”都束手无策。这一年,被嘲讽为“庸医年”。
除了坚持严控货币总量和坚持高利率,沃尔克其它什么也不能做。美联储委员们投票决定在1982年第一季度“不再增加货币供应”,并将联邦基金利率提高到14%。
沃尔克能做的只有坚持到底,以及等待潮水般的嘲讽。当时,一群来自俄亥俄州的农民开着拖拉机到美联储门前抗议示威,要求沃尔克下台,撤销美联储。
除了农民,里根、议员、经济学家、华尔街大佬、记者、工人对沃尔克都咬牙切齿。众议员亨利·冈萨雷斯威胁要弹劾沃尔克:“突破良心底线,让高利贷行为合法化。”
里根对沃尔克持续提高利率也颇为不满,这将很大程度上影响他连任。一次,一位记者向里根提问:“你赞同国会上有人提出让沃尔克先生辞职的意见吗?”
里根的回答是:“我无论如何也无可奉告。”事实上,里根对其幕僚多次强调,下一任(1983年换届)不能让他再干下去了。
或许真被弗里德曼说中了:反正都已经烂透了,唯一的好消息是没有比这更烂,你尽管放手去干。
不过坚持下去,好消息便逐渐涌现。首先是,由于沃尔克坚定不移地维持高利率,实施控制货币总量,通胀率在1983年下降至3.2%。
所谓春江水暖鸭先知,股票市场上出现了回暖的迹象。1982年10月,道琼斯指数从8月的770涨到了1000,这简直是神话般的故事。
这预示着漫长而痛苦的滞胀时代结束了吗?
这场危机,从1970算起到1982年,已肆虐了十三年。这十三年间,企业破产、银行破产数以及失业率,都创下了二战后最高记录。企业破产数量达25300 家,GDP平均增长速度只有2.9%,年平均通货膨胀率达到10.46%,失业率最高时达10.8%。
1982冬天,美国经济乃至世界经济悄然进入历史性的拐点。通胀率的下降程度以及经济复苏的速度,远远超过了朝野、幕僚们的预测。
1982年之后两年通胀率在4%左右,1986年降到1.9%。1983年经济强势反弹,GDP增长率为4.5%,1984年高达7.2%,统计专家大呼经济过热,呼吁美联储出手调节,1985年为4.1%。1982年之后25年间,年增长率达3.3%,与二战后25年间的增长水平相当。
金融市场正在向蒙代尔的预言方向走去,出现了供给学派拉特里奇预测的“美好场景”:大量投资从高通胀的商品投资转向股票、债券、货币基金等低通胀的金融资产,一场前所未有延续几十年的大牛市正在拉开序幕。
事实上,整个70年代以及这场滞胀危机,对当今世界的影响远远超出了世人的预期。
桑特《纽约书评》如此称赞:“里根当选总统,意味着空中再次弥漫如麝香般芬芳的利润。”后来,索罗斯将这一经济奇迹称之为“里根大循环”。
这到底是怎么回事呢?
陷入滞胀时,先控通胀,还是先刺激经济增长,这是一个单选题。
从尼克松、福特再到卡特,这三任政府对此都举棋不定,政策反反复复,反而加剧了通胀预期。事实上,不论从结果还是理论上都证明了,沃尔克是对的,忍受短期痛苦,先把通胀压住。为什么?
其中的逻辑不难理解:货币是一个经济的稳定器;如果货币大幅度贬值,市场价格则会全面扭曲,市场机制整体失灵,经济则会陷入混乱,经济衰退、停滞以及大规模失业则不可避免。
如果货币价格稳定了,市场才能逐渐恢复秩序,消费者、投资者、企业家才能做出相对合理的决策,市场自愈、自我调节的机制才能启动。如此,货币价格稳定,通胀被控制,经济和就业才会增加。
早在1940年代,德国弗莱堡学派创始人瓦尔特·欧根就明确提出过这一主张——货币目标优先原则。他认为,一切宏观经济目标都必须让位于货币政策,货币政策的唯一目标则是保持价格稳定。
欧根《经济政策的原则》一书中非常明确地写道:
“只要币值的某种稳定性得不到保障,一切为实现竞争秩序的努力都是徒劳的”,“坚定不移地把稳定货币放在首位,这样做事实上是对其他政策目标的最大支持,也是对经济发展的最大贡献”。
欧根的这一主张,被沃尔克成功地运用到了抗通胀之中。只是抗通胀这个过程中,货币大幅度紧缩,带来经济下滑、失业增长的痛苦和阵痛,让人煎熬。
这种暴力出清的方式是反人性的,也是无奈之举,需要与世界为敌的勇气,而沃尔克做到了。
抗击滞胀成功的关键是沃尔克按住了通胀,对内为美国经济创造了一个稳定的价格环境,促进市场机制自我复苏,酝酿了信息技术革命——计算机、微电子、生物工程、新材料及核能技术;对外重新确立了美元的强势地位,一扫1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃后的颓势,缔造了一个以美元为核心的国际新秩序及金融市场,促使大量国际资本流入美国,创造了几十年的房地产、股票及金融大牛市。
这就是里根经济学(里根大循环)的内核。
1983年,美联储主席换届,沃尔克因抗击通胀有功,声望日隆。里根颇为犹豫,他在日记中这样写道:“我见了保罗——我是在8月1日任命他做美联储主席呢,还是别人?从金融市场的反应看,似应让他续任。我不希望动摇他们对复苏的信心。”
不久后,沃尔克成功连任。
在参议院通过沃尔克的任命时,参议员加恩对沃尔克赞赏有加:“我怀疑除了沃尔克以外,过去还没有哪位美联储主席能在如此严峻的情况下坚持履责。”
尼克松时代的沃尔克亲手关闭黄金兑换窗口,终结金本位,将无锚货币放虎归山,推动人类经济进入浮动汇率时代;十年后,他又化身为孤胆英雄生擒通胀猛虎。沃尔克一身正气,刚正勇猛,留下一句句振聋发聩的警句:
“维护价格稳定是社会契约的应有之义。我们给政府印钞的权利,是因为我们相信经选举出来的官员不会滥用职权,不会过度发行美元使之贬值,会让美元与黄金等价。如果我们不信守诺言,就破坏了他人对美国的信任,而信任是一切中的一切。”
后记
早在1977年1月,供给学派经济学家贝利在华尔街日报上写下了一篇著名的社论《凯恩斯已死》的社论。
但是,贝利的结论下得有点早。
连任之后,沃尔克在一次理事会投票时,意识到自己已失去对美联储最高决策权的掌控。里根先后任命了马丁、赛格尔等四位理事,他们掌控了多数票,与里根、贝克一样都试图执行宽松货币政策。
会后,沃尔克大发雷霆:“从现在开始,你们可以为所欲为……但我不奉陪了。”
1987年6月1日下午,沃尔克拜访里根,递交了辞职信。次日上午10点,里根站在白宫新闻发布室的麦克风前宣布,格林斯潘替代沃尔克作为新任美联储主席。
1990年,旨在约束联邦政府财政预算的平衡预算法案开始实施。这时,格林斯潘放弃了弗里德曼时代的货币数量目标,转向利率调节。从此,美联储实施泰勒规则,货币供应彻底失控。
2008年,金融危机爆发,伯南克领导的美联储实施量化宽松政策。
这时,一种支持财政赤字货币化融资的货币理论重现江湖——美国后凯恩斯主义者明斯基的学生兰德尔·雷开创了现代货币理论,主张央行印刷货币,以供政府举债,只要利率稳定。
此后,滞胀危机,加入更多的元素:债务危机、资产泡沫、汇率危机、楼市危机……
2010年2月2日,美国参议院就金融监管法案中举行的“沃尔克规则”听证会上,83岁的沃尔克嘶声力竭地说:
“我在此想明确地告诉你,如果银行机构仍靠纳税人的钱提供保护,继续随意投机的话,危机还是会发生的。我老了,恐怕活不到危机卷土重来的那一天,但我的灵魂会回来缠住你们不放!”
自觉有序排队的俄罗斯人,插队可耻
闻名世界的芭蕾舞团
从门捷列夫到米哈伊尔•罗蒙诺索夫,从列夫·托尔斯泰到亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴,俄罗斯人为人类近代文明作出了重大贡献。
经历一 那次遭遇打劫,我们护送那个被刀子捅伤的哥们去医院看病,那一天,我们坐在冰冷的走廊上,因为缺乏维修,大部分的灯泡都坏了,跟其他建筑里的走廊一样,昏暗中,显得很安静。只有哥们在里面接收救治的时候,不断传来惨叫声。我们当时就知道,没打麻药,刮骨疗伤。 救治过程中,又来了一个病人,是因为酒后斗殴受伤过来的,警察也来来往往,但大家都很懈怠,敷衍的填写几张表格之后,就只剩下伤员和伤员家属了。 听着哥们的惨叫声,等待的俄罗斯人很骄傲,仰着鼻梁折断,鲜血淋漓的一张丑脸,乌鲁乌鲁的跟我们聊天。大家都懒得搭理他,甚至想再揍他一顿,让他彻底休克才好。 这次看病,没有挂号费,没有诊疗费,更没有红包。医生只是把我们的学生证信息抄写下来,作为医疗保险的凭证。然后就放我们走了。 经历二 同学的姐姐得了急性肝炎,但其实至今我都不知道究竟是什么病,总之,她被直接送到医院手术,然后又被送到疗养院隔离修养。因为她的病可以传染。所以,现在回想,没准是肺结核。 她也没怎么花钱,手术费、疗养费都没花钱,并且疗养院的伙食竟然还不错,每天都有汤、黑面包、肉类、鱼类。疗养院的环境非常好,男性家属不允许去病房探视,所以我们经常坐在花园里聊天。初春的阳光透过高大的树冠照在身上,暖洋洋,懒洋洋。浓郁的绿色中,是深处异乡的几个中国人。当地的病人没多少钱,所以除了伙食之外的营养品很少,中国人带去的水果、白面包、糖果、饮料,到后来都会被分享。 疗养院里面的电话很多,貌似一层或者一个病区都会有两个,全部免费。有时候同学的姐姐需要什么东西了,就打电话到宿舍这边,我们也经常拨电话过去,问她有什么要求。 其他的,还有几个同学得了阑尾炎、发高烧什么的,都会安排住院,住院期间的医疗费用也都是全免。
总之,当时的俄罗斯医疗,硬件不错,软件太差,医生懈怠,药品有问题。但对于身体强壮的俄罗斯人来说,足够抵御病痛了。
以1美元为基准,
1987年 0.9卢布
1990年 1.8卢布
1991年 170卢布
1994年 3000卢布
1995年 4500卢布
1997年 5800卢布
1998年 俄罗斯1:1000强制兑换旧卢布
1998年1月1日 6新卢布(=6000旧卢布)
1998年8月18日 9.5新卢布
1998年9月7日 20新卢布
2000年 27新卢布
2004年 28新卢布
2007年 30新卢布
2009年 36新卢布
2015年 65新卢布
27年间,卢布贬值到原来的11万分之一。
想起了列夫·托尔斯泰一句话: 幸福的家庭都是相似的,不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。人无远虑,必有近忧。未雨绸缪,无论在哪里生活,提前做一些风险防范都是必要的。
关于汇率,还要说一个好玩的事情。有次去查古巴的经济数据,发现人均GDP是八千多美元,考虑到古巴人均月收入只有几十美元,当时就惊诧了。后来再了解,这是计划经济体常见的离奇数据。无论GDPCPI汇率增长率,一切都可以规划。如果想在外汇管制国家估算真实汇率,可以参考黑市价的正负10%范围波动。
一般来说,货币崩溃的情况大约有三种:
1、政局动荡,社会失序。比如苏联、南斯拉夫解体。系统问题。
2、大规模国有化+印钞。比如委内瑞拉、津巴布韦。基础良好,打坏了一手好牌。
3、封闭之地,教士治国。比如伊朗、曹县。