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【宇晨专栏】
2018年11月11-12日, 周末
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（中英文对照完整版）
以下方括号【】里的是每段访谈的主题，英文粗黑体字和KS是Recode Decode的记者大妈Kara Swisher，英文普通黑体字和EM是我们的活宝Elon Musk。
Kara Swisher: I’m here with Elon Musk at the headquarters of Tesla. We’re gonna talk about Tesla, we’re gonna talk about SpaceX, we’re gonna talk about this year, we’re gonna talk about The Boring Company, and anything else Elon wants to talk about, because people like to hear you talk.
KS：我在特斯拉的总部采访伊隆·马斯克。我们将谈到特斯拉，SpaceX, 和今年所发生的事。我们也会谈到Boring公司，和任何伊隆想聊的话题。大家显然都喜欢听你瞎侃。
Using Twitter without a filter
【未经过滤的推特】
Let’s start from the beginning, about this year. You’ve given some very interesting interviews. You’ve gotten on Twitter, made some mistakes.
What’s Twitter?
KS：我们先来聊聊今年，你做过一些有趣的媒体采访，上过推特，也犯了一些错误。
EM：啥是推特？
What’s Twitter? Okay, let’s start with Twitter. I have an obsession with Twitter, too, and an addiction. What happens with you and Twitter?
Well, I tweet interesting things pretty much as they come to me, and probably with not much of a filter.
KS：推特是啥？嗯，好吧，我们先来聊聊推特。我对推特也有点上瘾，但你是咋回事？
EM：如果有啥好玩的，我就推出去，心血来潮，或许没经过啥过滤。
And why?
I find it entertaining. I think, “Oh, other people might find this entertaining.” Sometimes they do.
KS：为啥腻？
EM：我觉得好玩。我想没准别人也会觉得好玩。有时大家伙也确实觉得好玩呗。
Just at night? What are you, at home you’re doing this?
Yeah. Mostly at home. I spend a lot less time on Twitter than people probably think. It’s like maybe 10-15 minutes or something.
KS：你只是晚上发推特吗？你是在家里发吗？
EM：是的，大部分时候是在家里。其实我花在推特上的时间远少于有些人想象的，或许 (译注：每天) 10-15分钟吧。
Yeah, well people pay attention when you do that.
Yeah. It’s pretty interesting what my most … What people are most interested in, like some little tweet about “I love anime.” That was it. But it was lowercase “i”, black heart, “anime,” and people loved that. That was like one of my most popular tweets.
KS: 是啊，大家都比较关注你发的东西。
EM: 是滴，大家伙对啥感兴趣也是蛮好玩的。比如有一次我发了一条“我喜欢动漫” (I love anime), 小写的i，一个心的符号但是黑色的，大家都超喜欢，据说这是我最受欢迎的一条推特之一。
What about the things they didn’t love? Are you under strict orders not to do that? Is that correct? Will you be? Will you have to change your Twitter behavior?
Not really. I think it’s mostly just if it’s something that might cause a substantial movement in the stock during trading hours. That’s about it.
KS：那么对那些他们不喜欢的推特呢？是否有人强行下令让你别发推特？是不是这样？你会改变你发推特的习惯吗？
EM：还好吧。我想主要是股市开的时间段里，我发的东西可能会影响股价的波动。无非如此而已。
Do you consider it a communications medium? How do you look at it?
I look at it as a way to learn things, kinda stay in touch with what’s happening. It feels like dipping into the flow of consciousness of society. That’s what it feels like. It’s kinda weird. I guess I sometimes use Twitter to express myself, and that’s a weird thing to do, I suppose.
KS：你是把推特看作是一个沟通的渠道吗？你怎么看？
EM：我把它看作是一个学习的机会，在某种程度上让我不致于孤陋寡闻。感觉上让我能够与时俱进。我是这么感觉的。是的，这么说好像有点怪怪的。我猜想有时我是用推特表达我自己，可能是觉得有点怪怪的感觉吧。
Not so much. It isn’t. Sometimes it’s very funny, other times it’s not so funny.
Some people use their hair to express themselves. I use Twitter.
KS：不至于吧，不怪啊。有时非常有趣，有时不好玩。
EM：有些人用他们的发型表达自己，我选择用推特。
Picking fights with the press
【和媒体“干架”】
You pick fights with the press over Twitter, and then you have all your fans, of which there are many. Are you aware of what they do once you start them off?
Well, I have to say, my regard for the press has dropped quite dramatically.
KS：你通过推特和媒体干架。你有很多粉丝，你知道他们怎么看吗？
EM：嗯。我得说我对媒体的看法可以说是急剧下跌了。
Explain that, please.
The amount of untruthful stuff that is written is unbelievable. Take that Wall Street Journal front-page article about, like, “The FBI is closing in.” That is utterly false. That’s absurd. To print such a falsehood on the front page of a major newspaper is outrageous. Like, why are they even journalists? They’re terrible. Terrible people.
KS：请解释一下。
EM：媒体发表的假货已经到了不可思议的地步。比如华尔街日报在头版的一篇报道里称“联邦调查局正收紧包围圈“，完全是假新闻，非常可笑。这样的主流报刊在头版发表这样的假新闻实在是令人发指。这些人还是记者吗？简直是人渣。
I get that, but do you understand the mood in this country around the press and the dangers of attacking, especially when the president is doing that? In quite an aggressive, “enemy of the state” and everything else. It’s disturbing when someone like you as a leader does that, too, or goes along with it.
The answer is for the press to be honest and truthful, and research their articles and correct things properly when they are false. Which they don’t do.
KS：我理解你说的。但是你了解我们国家的民众现在对媒体整体的态度，以及攻击媒体的危险后果吗？尤其是总统也在攻击媒体？甚至把媒体上刚上线说成是“国家的敌人”等等。像你这样有号召力的人都这样攻击媒体，或者放任这种行为，这让人觉得很不安啊。
EM：解决的方法是媒体应该诚实，并追求事实。发表文章前要有调查研究，如果有错即刻改正，但他们并没有做到这一点。
Okay. But I’m asking if you understand where it goes to.
Yes, of course I do.
KS：好吧。但我要问你的是你知不知道这会往什么方向发展。
EM：我当然知道。
What do you think of that? Are you worried about unleashing a dangerous cycle that a lot of the press are worried about? Justifiably.
I suggest the press take it to heart and do better.
KS：那你是怎么想的呢？你担心我们会陷入危险的恶性循环吗？媒体的担心也是有道理的。
EM：我建议媒体真的把这当回事，往心里去，做的更好一点。
What about what Donald Trump does, about “enemy of the people”? Do you look at it that way?
No.
KS：那你对特普说媒体是“人民的敌人”有什么看法？你是不是也这么认为呢？
EM：不。
Just that you don’t like falsehoods.
Yeah. There are good journalists and there are bad ones, and unfortunately the feedback loop for good versus bad is inverted, so the more salacious that an article is, the more salacious the headline is, the more clicks it’s gonna get. Then somebody is not a journalist, they are an ad salesman.
KS：你就是不喜欢假的东西。
EM：是啊。记者也有好的，也有坏的。不幸的是好的和坏的反馈回路是颠倒过来了。越是荒淫无度的文章，越是恶心无耻的标题，越是吸引点击。记者不再是记者，都成了卖广告的销售商。
What about things that are just critical of you that you don’t like? Do you think you’re particularly sensitive?
No. Of course not. Count how many negative articles there are and how many I respond to. One percent, maybe. But the common rebuttal of journalists is, “Oh. My article’s fine. He’s just thin-skinned.” No, your article is false and you don’t want to admit it.
KS：那么，是不是你只是不喜欢批评你的东西？你是不是过于敏感了呢？
EM：当然不是。数数有多少负面的文章和有多少我给予了回应？或许是百分之一。媒体最常见的反驳是：“我的文章没问题。怪只怪他的脸皮太薄了。” 不，你的文章是假货，只是你不承认而已。
Do you take criticism to heart correctly?
Yes.
KS：那你是认真对待批评的吗？
EM：是的。
Give me an example of something if you could.
How do you think rockets get to orbit?
KS：给我举个例。
EM：你以为火箭是怎么上到轨道上的？
That’s a fair point.
Not easily. Physics is very demanding. If you get it wrong, the rocket will blow up. Cars are very demanding. If you get it wrong, a car won’t work. Truth in engineering and science is extremely important.
KS：有道理。
EM：不容易的。物理是非常严谨的。你如果没搞对，火箭会爆炸。车子也是非常严谨的，你搞错了，车子开不了。对科学技术而言，真实是至关重要的。
Right. And therefore?
I have a strong interest in the truth.
KS：好吧。那么？
EM：我很看重真理。
All right. And you are —
Much more than journalists do.
KS：好吧。所以你是…
EM：我比一些记者更看重真理。
What I’m trying to get to is, do you want to acknowledge when you do this it does set off … People beyond you that listen to you, you have a fan base that’s quite rabid, I would say.
No, I wouldn’t say that.
KS：我想说的是你是不是承认当你这么做的时候你确实让有些人感到不安，尤其是那些不是你粉丝的人。我得说你的粉丝也是蛮疯狂的。
EM：不，我不这么认为。
No?
I think they’re great.
KS：不？
EM：我觉得他们（我的粉丝）很棒。
All of them?
No, not all of them.
KS：你所有的粉丝？
EM：不，不是所有的粉丝。
The “excruciating” year of 2018
【“痛苦”的2018年】
Let’s talk about this year. What has gone on this year with you?
It’s been a very difficult year. We had the Model 3 production ramp, which was excruciatingly difficult. It is incredibly difficult to survive as a car company. Incredibly difficult. People have no idea how much pain people at Tesla went through, including myself. It was excruciating.
KS：我们来聊聊今年吧。鬼知道你经历了什么？
EM：今年真是太艰难了。我们Model 3的量产非常不容易。作为一个汽车公司，生存下来是极端艰难的。一般人根本不知道特斯拉和我都经历了什么，非常痛苦。
Talk about that toll.
Pretty sure I burnt out a bunch of neurons during this process. Running both SpaceX and Tesla is an incredibly difficult … You realize we’re fighting the incredibly competitive car companies. They make very good cars. They’ve been doing this for a long time. They are entrenched. Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Lexus, you name it. All those car brands. And the history of car companies in America is terrible. The only ones that haven’t gone bankrupt are Tesla and Ford. That’s it. Everyone else has gone bankrupt.
KS：说说都受了啥煎熬。
EM：肯定是烧掉了很多脑细胞。同时管理SpaceX和特斯拉非常困难 … 要意识到我们是和那些非常有竞争力的汽车公司干。他们做的车子也很棒。他们已经有这么多年的经验。奔驰，奥迪，宝马，凌志，每个都是响当当的牌子。但是美国汽车公司的历史却是糟透了。唯一没破产过的是福特和特斯拉。其它都经历过破产。
You put too much pressure on yourself this year, or it just is what you’re doing?
It sounds like you’re not hearing me. Making a car company successful is monumentally difficult. There have been many attempts to create a car company and they have all failed, even the ones that have had a strong base of customers, thousands of dealers, thousands of service centers, they’ve already spent the capital for the factories, like GM and Chrysler, still went bankrupt in the last recession. Ford and Tesla made it barely through the last recession. There’s a good chance Ford doesn’t make it in the next recession. So, as a startup, a car company, it is far more difficult to be successful than if you’re an established, entrenched brand. It is absurd that Tesla is alive. Absurd! Absurd.
KS：今年你给自己太大的压力，还是这就是你的风格？
EM：你好像没听懂我说的。创立一个成功的汽车公司是极其困难的。有很多创立汽车公司的尝试都失败了。有些还有强大的顾客群，成千上万的经销商，成千上万的服务中心，花费了巨资搞的工厂，像通用汽车和克莱斯勒，在上一波经济衰退时也破产了。福特和特斯拉在上次经济萧条中侥幸生存下来。福特很有可能躲不过下一次经济萧条。所以说，作为一个汽车行业的初创企业，比那些已经有基础的根深蒂固的品牌更难成功。特斯拉能活下来简直就是逆天了。荒唐啊有木有！
What do you credit that to?
Excruciating effort.
KS：那你靠的是？
EM：痛苦的努力。
By you and —
Hundred-hour weeks by everyone.
KS：你和谁的努力？
EM：每一个员工，每星期上百小时的投入。
By everyone here at Tesla.
Yes. There wasn’t some other way to do this.
KS：特斯拉每一个员工都投入艰辛的努力。
EM：是的。没别的路可走。
Why does Musk push himself so hard?
【为啥马斯克这么拼命】
What I want to get at is why you’re doing that. It’s not a trivial … Why do you think you want to push yourself that hard?
Well, the other option would have been, Tesla dies.
KS：你为什么这么拼命？我想说的是你为什么要这样？虽然这不是吹灰之力可以搞定的 … 但为什么你觉得有必要这么拼命呢？
EM：不然，结果就是特斯拉死球。
Right.
Yeah. Tesla cannot die. Tesla is incredibly important for the future of sustainable transport and energy generation. The fundamental purpose, the fundamental good that Tesla provides is accelerating the advent of sustainable transport and energy production.
KS：对。
EM：是的，特斯拉不能死。特斯拉对未来可持续交通运输和能源再生极其重要。特斯拉最根本的目的就是加速可持续的交通运输和能源生产的进程。
Which I think most people credit you for doing. Pushing everyone else into it at the same time, correct?
Yes. The success of Tesla is, by far, the biggest forcing function for the other carmakers to get into into electric cars. They’ve said so.
KS：大部分人都认可你所做的努力。你也促使大家都齐头并进，是不是？
EM：是的。特斯拉最成功的一点就是迫使其他汽车厂家都开始搞电动汽车。他们也承认这一点。
No, there’s no question. I was just having a discussion with someone the other day, and I said, “He has pushed everybody into this, really dramatically. There wouldn’t have been this much investment. There wouldn’t have been this.”
Yes. It’s very important for the future of the world. It’s very important for all life on Earth. This supersedes political parties, race, creed, religion, it doesn’t matter. If we do not solve the environment, we’re all damned.
KS：这一点毫无疑问。我前几天跟人聊天。我说，“伊隆大大推动了这个产业，不然不会有这么大的投资，不会做到像现在这样。”
EM：是的。这对世界的未来至关重要，对地球上所有的生命至关重要。这超越了政党，种族，信念，和宗教。如果我们不能解决环境问题，我们就完蛋了，所有其他的一切都无关紧要。
And this way via sustainable transportation.
Yes. It sort of blows my mind, all these social justice warriors driving around in diesel cars. It’s outrageous.
KS：所以需要可持续的交通运输。
EM：是的。有时真的让我大惑不解，那些社会正义的斗士们开着柴油发动机的车子，简直太可恶了。
You’re doing this to yourself because you think that the world depends … Not the fate of the world. You’re not a cartoon character.
No, I think the electrification of transport, and there’s also an important part of Tesla which is solar and stationary batteries, because you need to generate electricity in a standard, sustainable way with solar and then store it at night when the sun goes down with batteries, and then use that energy from the sun to power cars. Without Tesla, this would still happen. There would still be a transition to sustainable energy, but it would take much longer. History will judge this, obviously, but I would say on the order of 10 years, maybe 20 years.
KS：你这样做是因为你觉得这关系到世界的前途 … 命运攸关。而且你不是卡通人物，你是认真的。
EM：对，我相信交通运输电动化，而且特斯拉另外还有一个重要的方面是太阳能和蓄电池，因为我们需要利用太阳能通过标准化可持续的方式发电，然后在夜间太阳下山后把电能存储起来，用来驱动汽车。当然没有特斯拉这也会发生，还是会转向可持续的能源，但进展会慢很多。当然历史会评判这一点，但我觉得会延迟10年，或许20年。
So, pushing it forward by that much.
Yes. I think it’s probably fair to say that Tesla has advanced sustainable energy by at least five years, conservatively, and maybe closer to 10, and then if we continue to make progress, we might advance it by 20 years. This could be all the difference in the world.
KS：所以，你在力推这个。
EM：是的，我觉得特斯拉加快了可持续能源的进程至少五年，这是保守的估计，或许更接近十年。如果我们持续取得进步，我们或许会使这个进程加快20年，造福人类。
What is the toll on you? What has been the toll on you and your employees? How do you think about that?
It’s been terrible. This year felt like five years of aging, frankly. The worst year of my entire career. Insanely painful.
KS：对此你付出了什么代价？你的员工付出了什么代价？你是怎么认为的？
EM：糟透了。今年感觉老了五岁。是我整个职业生涯中最糟的一年，无与伦比的痛苦。
Was there any other way to do it? You didn’t think there was any other way to have it happen? Why this year?
For this past year, it’s been because of the Model 3 production ramp. Myself and others at Tesla, we had to go in and fix the mistakes in the Model 3 production system, and there were a lot of them. I personally solved a bunch. Jerome [Guillen] solved a bunch. Everyone helped, the entire team. Javier [Verdura], Franz [von Holzhausen], Deepak [Ahuja], everyone. It was … like, we had the legal team delivering cars in Q3. Todd [Maron] is great. There was a lot of people … Everyone had to basically go hardcore to solve the ramp.
KS：没别的办法吗？你不认为有任何其它的路？非要今年？
EM：过去的一年，主要是Model 3量产的问题。我自己和特斯拉的其他员工，我们要改正Model 3生产系统中的错误，很多的错误。我自己亲自解决了不少问题，Jerome Guillen (译注：特斯拉汽车总裁) 解决了一大堆问题，每个人都作出了贡献，整个团队。Javier Verdura (译注：特斯拉产品设计总监), Franz von Holzhausen (译注：特斯拉总设计师), Deepak Ahuja (译注：特斯拉CFO)，每一个人。比如好像整个法务部都在忙于第三季度交货，Todd Maron (译注：特斯拉总法律顾问) 超棒。很多人 … 的确是每个人都是不遗余力参与解决量产的问题。
Self-inflicted wounds and sleep deprivation
【挥刀自残和失眠症】
I want to get into Tesla specifically, and about the recent results, which I think people were surprised by. You surprised Wall Street and some of your competitors. But when you’re thinking about doing this incredibly complex thing, do you regret some of the things you’ve done to slow it down itself? You know, some of your tweets, some of it is self-inflicted. Do you not see it that way?
Yeah, there’s no question there’s, like, self-inflicted wounds. In fact, my brother said, “Look, if you do a self-inflicted wound, can you at least not twist the knife afterwards?” You stabbed yourself in the leg. You don’t really need to twist it in your leg. Why do that?
KS：我想特别聊聊特斯拉，最近发布的这个季度的业绩报表。我想很多人都没预料到特斯拉这个季度的业绩(会这么好)。华尔街和你的竞争对手都没有预料到。但是当你想到要做这个超复杂的事，你对你自己所做过的一些绊你自己脚的事后悔吗，比如你发的一些推特？自找的麻烦。你是这么看的吗？
EM：是，毫无疑问是自己捅了自己一刀。我弟弟跟我说，”你捅了自己一刀也就罢了，你真有必要再把插进去的刀转两圈吗?” 就是啊，为啥呀？
So why do you do that?
It’s not intentional. Sometimes you’re just under a lot of pressure, and you’re not getting much sleep, you’re under massive pressure, and you make mistakes.
KS：那么为啥呀？
EM：我不是故意的，有时受到很多的压力，又加上睡不着觉，在强大的压力下，就犯错了。
Is that over? Do you feel like that’s over? Do you feel calmer now?
It’s totally over. I will never make another mistake again.
KS：现在没事了？你觉得你扛过来了吗？你现在更冷静一点了吗？
EM：全过去了。我不会再犯错误了。
No, I’m teasing you. But how do you … You look well. You don’t look under a lot of pressure. You seem rested.
Yeah. Things are back to a hard work schedule, but not an insane work schedule. I was, there were times when, some weeks … I don’t know. I haven’t counted exactly, but I would just sort of sleep for a few hours, work, sleep for a few hours, work, seven days a week. Some of those days must have been 120 hours or something nutty. You’re gonna go a little bonkers if you work 120 hours a week. Now we’re down to 80 or 90. It’s pretty manageable.
KS：不，我只是拿你开心。你看起来气色很好。你看上去不像有很大的压力。你好像休息过来了。
EM：是啊。我们回到了艰难的工作时间表，不再是疯狂的工作时间表。我曾经… 有时… 有些星期… 我不知道。我没准确地数过，我是逮着了就睡一会，工作，再睡一会，一星期七天。好像是一个星期工作120小时，简直疯狂了。一星期工作120小时，难免会出些漏子。现在我们是80或90个小时。可以对付得了。
And you had talked in the New York Times about using Ambien and stuff like that. That was to regulate your sleep, correct?
Yeah. It’s not like for fun or something.
KS：你在给纽约时报采访时说你吃Ambient (译注，一种安眠药的牌子), 帮助你调整睡眠，是吗？
EM：是的。并不是为了好玩。
No, not at all.
No, it’s just like, if you’re super-stressed, you can’t go to sleep. You either have a choice of, like, okay, I’ll have zero sleep and then my brain won’t work tomorrow, or you’re gonna take some kind of sleep medication to fall asleep.
KS：当然不是。
EM：对。当你承受巨大的压力时，你睡不着。完全不睡，第二天你脑袋停止工作，所以要吃些安眠药。
Tesla’s profitable quarter and self-driving cars
【特斯拉这个季度盈利和自动驾驶汽车】
You turned in a great quarter. How do you look at where you’re going with the Model 3 and others?
I think at Tesla we’re doing pretty well right now. Tesla’s not staring death in the face. We’re in, I think, a pretty good position. We don’t want to be complacent, but it’s not … Up until around September, we were really faced with, like, “We must solve this or we’re gonna die,” constantly. I feel like we’re no longer in the staring-death-in-the-face situation.
KS：你们这个季度业绩很好。你对Model 3和其他的产品的前景是怎么看的？
EM：我想特斯拉现在状况挺好。特斯拉不再直接面对死神。我们现在的处境不错。我们不能自满，但一直到九月份左右为止，我们真的是一直面对死的危险，“我们必须解决这个问题，不然我们就翘了。” 我感觉我们不再是和死神面对面的状况。
What, is death over and sitting in a seat nearby?
Well, you never want to get complacent, so we still need to work hard, but I think we’re over the hump. We’re certainly over the hump on Model 3 production. For us, making 5,000 cars in a week for Model 3 is not a big deal. That’s just normal. Now we’re working on raising to 6,000 and then 7,000 Model 3s a week, while still keeping costs under control. We could probably do 6,000 or more, maybe 6,500 Model 3s a week right now, but it would have to stress people out and do tons of overtime.
KS：死不了，但是不是还有危险呢？
EM：呵呵，我们永远都不能自满，我们仍旧要努力工作，但我们是过去一个坎了。Model 3生产的坎我们是过去了。对我们来说，一个星期生产5,000是小菜一碟。这已是常态。我们现在争取把Model 3产量提高到每周出6,000，然后7,000，并且能够有效控制成本。我们现在或许可以做到6,000或更多，可能一个星期6,500辆Model 3。但那样会给员工太大的压力，并且加班时间也会大幅增加。
Talk about the new navigation feature.
Drive on Navigation?
KS：聊聊新的导航功能。
EM：导航自驾吗？
Right.
That’s I think one of the first major steps toward full self-driving. You can enter in an address, and from highway on-ramp to highway off-ramp, the car will change lanes. It will go from one highway to the next automatically, and take off-ramp automatically. It’s pretty wild. It’ll overtake a slow car. It’s basically integrating navigation with the Autopilot capability. That’s why we call it Navigate on Autopilot, or Drive on Nav.
KS：对。
EM：我认为那是实现全自驾重要的起点。你可以输入地址，上高速，下高速，换道，和从一个高速公路自动换到另一个高速公路，也能自动下高速，超车。厉害了，我的车！基本上就是整合导航和自动驾驶的功能。这是为什么我们把这称之为导航自驾。
What are the challenges that you face with these technologies now, from your perspective?
Well, the main challenge has been improving the neural net so that we can recognize all types of objects from all eight cameras. There are eight cameras: Three forward, two on each side, and one rear. The big challenge has been solving a wide range of corner cases. So if you have a —
KS：从你的角度看，这些技术哪些是最具有挑战性的？
EM：呃，主要的挑战一直是改善神经网，使其具有识别所有各种类型物体的能力。八个摄像机，前面三个，两边各两个，后面一个。最难的是解决各种拐角的情景。所以如果你有 —
These are things that just happen.
Yeah, the roads are pretty messy, so you could have, say, skid marks on the road that look like a line. Sometimes tar seams look like a line. Sometimes the lines are just painted wrong, for some reason. One of our biggest challenges, actually, with Drive on Navigation was dealing with forks and gores, where if a lane is splitting, you need to be confident that you’re going either left or right, not down the center. And the car will come to a halt at the first intersection.
Now we’re integrating stop signs, traffic lights, being able to do, say, hard right turns or hairpin bends and that kind of thing.
KS：路上碰到的各种情况。
EM：是的。路面会很糟糕。比如路面上的刹车印可能会被误认为是车道分界线。有时沥青路面的裂缝也会被误认为是车道分界线。有时车道分界线干脆就是印错的。其实，我们最大的一个挑战是导航自驾如何判断车道分叉和高速出口的三角缓冲区。当一条车道分叉时，你要确定是走左边还是右边，而不能犹豫不决走中间。当车子到交叉路口时会停下来。我们要考虑停车标志，交通灯，还有急转弯，盘山公路等等各种各样的情况。
What about regulations? The regulatory environment right now? Because that’s gonna be part of it, or else building out infrastructure that will have sensors in roads or things like that? How do you look at that, or you’re just not even thinking about it?
Yeah, we’re not really thinking about it. We’re assuming that there won’t be —
KS：还有监管部门怎么办？现在政府监管是怎么一个情况？监管也是需要的，或许建设基础设施时是不是在路上埋下感应器。你怎么认为，还是根本都还没考虑？
EM：的确，都还没考虑这些因素。我们假定不会有—
You’re not assuming.
No. The car needs to drive better than a human driver using the same inputs as a human driver. Eyes are basically just cameras. All creatures on Earth navigate with cameras. A fish eagle can see a fish from far away and take into account the refractive index of the water, dive down and get the fish from far away. There’s no question that image-recognition neural nets and cameras, you can be superhuman at driving with just cameras.
KS：你不可以假定。
EM：对。在有相同的信息输入的情况下，车子自驾必须比人类驾驶员开的好。眼睛就是摄像机，地球上所有的生物都有“摄像机”导航。一个鱼鹰可以从老远就看到鱼，并能把水面上的折射率考虑进去，潜下水中抓到鱼。毫无疑问，相比只有摄像机，图像识别神经网络和摄像机结合可以让你成为超人驾驶员。
You don’t need anything else, from the government or from infrastructure or anything. I was recently talking to the Mercedes people. They were talking about sensors in the roads.
Yeah, that’s hopeless. That would, at best, be a specialized solution, and whatever city puts stuff in roads … You can always make something work for a specific solution, like some special-case solution in some town, you can make that easy, but what you really want is a general solution for self-driving that works worldwide.
KS：从政府那和从基础建设方面，你不需要其他什么了。我最近和奔驰的人聊，他们在讨论路上是否应该埋感应器。
EM：那 (译注：指的是道路上埋感应器) 是没有希望的。那最多只能是一个特殊的解决方案，城市把些个东西埋在路上。你当然可以作为一个特例搞定，在有些城镇实现这种解决方案。但是你真正需要的是一个通用的解决方案，不管在世界上哪里都能实现自驾。
Tesla’s competitors
【特斯拉的竞争对手】
I’d love you to sort of assess the competitive landscape. Faraday just lost another founder today, which was the hot company, or the allegedly hot company, I think that’s probably easier to say it that way. Lucid got a billion dollars. How do you assess — Google’s working on stuff, Uber still seems to be hanging in there. I’d love to get your assessment of all of them.
Yeah. I don’t really think that much about competitors. I just say like, you know, how do we make our cars as good as possible? How do we make sure we have like the best engineering and manufacturing talent in the world?
It’s sort of like the old adage with, you know, running … If you start looking at the other runners, it’s not good, you know. Like, you can lose races because of that.
KS：我很希望你来评估一下现在的竞争局面。法拉第未来刚刚又失去了一个创始人。法拉第未来曾经是一个很热门的公司，至少据称很热门，或许现在这么讲更准确一些。Lucid刚刚筹到了十个亿的投资。你是怎么看的 — 谷歌在做，优步也好像在那撑着。我很希望听听你的分析。
EM：好吧，我真的不觉得有啥竞争。我只是说，我们的目光完全聚焦在怎样把我们的车子做的尽可能好，把世界上最优秀的工程和制造人才都搞到我们旗下。这就跟跑步一样，有个古老的谚语，如果你开始看其他跑步的对手，那就糟了。你就会因此落败。
Which one of them, do you think, is the furthest ahead or closest to you all?
Self-driving, maybe Google, Waymo? I don’t think anyone is close to Tesla in terms of achieving a general solution for working on —
KS：你认为哪家最领先或者离你最接近？
EM：自驾方面，或许是谷歌，Waymo？我不认为有哪家接近特斯拉的全面解决的 —
Overall solution.
Yeah. Yeah. You can definitely make things work like in one particular city or something like that by special-casing it, but in order to work, you know, all around the world in all these different countries where there’s, like, different road signs, different traffic behavior, there’s like every weird corner case you can imagine. You really have to have a generalized solution. And best to my knowledge, no one has a good generalized solution except … and I think no one is likely to achieve a generalized solution to self-driving before Tesla. I could be surprised, but…
KS：整体的解决方案。
EM：对，对。他们绝对能在某个特定的城市，或者某些特例的情况下成功。但要玩真格的，全世界所有不同的国家，比如不同的路标，不同的交通行为，你很难想象的到各种奇葩的情景，你必须要有一个通用的解决方案。据我了解，没人有通用的解决方案，除了 … 我不相信有人会在通用的自驾解决方案上走到特斯拉的前面。但如果有，我会大大地吃惊 …
So none of the car companies. None of the car companies.
No.
KS：所以没有一个汽车公司，一个都没有。
EM：没有。
Do you ever look and go, “Okay, that’s interesting what they’re doing there.”
The other car companies … I don’t wanna sound overconfident, but I would be very surprised if any of the car companies exceeded Tesla in self-driving, in getting to full self-driving.
You know, I think we’ll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that’s a … Like, we’re on track to do that next year. So I don’t know. I don’t think anyone else is on track to do it next year.
KS：你有没有想过，“噢，他们在做的那啥还有点意思。”
EM：说到其他汽车厂家 … 我不想过于自信，但是如果有哪家在特斯拉之前实现了自驾，我真的会惊奇万分。你知道，我认为我们明年就会实现全方位自驾，是一个通用的解决方案。我不知道另外有哪家明年能达到这个目标。
Why Tesla is not going private after all
【为什么特斯拉最后还是决定不私有化】
So the challenge you face is financial, though. Getting funding and stuff like that. And you’ve gotten … Saudis had bought a big bunch of your stock, that’s just separate, they —
They might have sold it, I don’t know.
KS：那么 (译注：指的是私有化的想法)，你面临的挑战是融资方面的，需要的资金啥的。而你有 … 沙特买下了一大堆你们的股票，虽然那是另外的 (译注：指的是买股票和出钱私有化是两回事)。
EM：他们或许已经把股票卖了，我不知道。
Yeah, we don’t know what they have now. But where do you get the money? Talk about the finances of doing this, because that’s what could really hurt you, is not having enough capital.
You know … I mean, as I said earlier this year, I think we will be cash-flow positive for all quarters going forward.
KS：是的，我们不知道他们现在是怎么回事。但是，你从哪搞来钱？说说你们的财务状况，你知道缺少足够的资金对你们会非常不利。
EM：你知道 … 我的意思是，如我今年早些时候所说，我认为在未来的季度里我们都会有正的现金流。
All quarters going forward. So do you need more investment?
No, I don’t think so.
KS：正的现金流。那你还需要更多的投资吗？
EM：不，我不认为我们需要 (追加投资)。
Do you need to go private? Are you still contemplating that?
We don’t need to go private. I think we could execute better if we were private.
KS：你们还需要私有化吗？你还仍旧想着要私营吗？
EM：我们不必私营，尽管我觉得私营的话我们会运作的更好。
Without all the attention?
Yeah, you know, not to harp on those short-sellers, because people think I have this obsession with them, but I spent like 1 percent [or] less of time thinking about them —
KS：没有那么多人关注？
EM：是的，你知道，不是我说那些空头，人们觉得我跟这些空头纠缠不清，但其实我用百分之一的时间想他们都没有。
It’s the tweets, Elon. But go ahead.
Less than 1 percent of my tweets have anything to do with short-sellers. But the issue is that there’s a group of people who are quite smart, very mean, and have a strong financial interest in Tesla’s downfall.
And what that results in is a constant attack on the Tesla brand, on me personally, on the executive team, on our cars. You know, every mistake we make is amplified.
Going private would definitely result in some short-term drama. Let’s say we’re private, and then we went public five years from now. Then the area under the curve of brand damage by short-sellers would be probably less than the short-term difficulty of going private in the first place. That was the approximate calculus.
And then also being public, particularly when everyone at the company is a shareholder, causes a lot of distraction when the share price moves around a lot. It tends to end up being like a mood, to some degree, a mood thermometer. So it’s like the stock goes down, people are sad and feel undercompensated. And then when the stock goes up, people are exuberant, overly exuberant, and you get distracted thinking about what you’re going to buy.
KS：是推特(惹的祸)，伊隆。但你继续说。
EM：我的推特不到百分之一跟空头有关。但问题是有一帮人，他们很聪明，也很邪恶，特斯拉如果倒了，他们能获取巨大的利益。所以，他们不停地攻击特斯拉，攻击我个人，攻击我们的管理团队，攻击我们的车。我们所犯过的每一个错误都被放大。私营化短期内肯定会有场好戏。假设我们私营了，五年后再上市，那么空头对我们的品牌造成的损害或许小于私营产生的短期的困难。这只是个估计。作为一个上市公司，特别是公司里的每个人都是股东的时候，股价大幅度浮动会造成很多干扰。在一定程度上，股价成了心情温度计。股价跌了，大家就觉得情绪低落，觉得努力没得到回报。估计涨了，大家就兴奋，过度兴奋，不知道买啥好了。总之是干扰。
Right, right.
So, like, neither of these things are great. When you have big moves in the stock, this just causes a distraction.
KS：好吧，好吧。
EM：所以，两者都不好，股价大幅度浮动导致干扰。
The Tesla Semi, pickup truck and other new products
【特斯拉的大卡车，皮卡和其他产品】
Okay. All right, so last thing on this, on Tesla, these new products. The truck, the Roadster, do you have another thing you’re making?
Ha-ha. We definitely do.
KS：OK，最后一个有关特斯拉的问题。新产品，卡车，跑车，你还在搞什么产品吗？
EM：哈哈，我们肯定在搞新玩意。
Do you have a vertical lift and takeoff?
The supersonic VTOL jet, electric jet.
KS：你在搞垂直起飞降落吗？
EM：超音速垂直起飞降落飞机，电动的。
Yeah. Perhaps a hovercraft like Larry Page, I don’t know.
No, hovercrafts are pretty straightforward.
KS：对啊，或许像拉里·佩奇 (译注：谷歌的CEO) 搞的气垫船，我不知道。
EM：不是，气垫船比较简单。
Yeah. Okay, sure. For you.
A supersonic vertical-takeoff-and-landing electric jet would be interesting to do at some point, I think. But my head would definitely explode if I tried to do that right now.
But I’ve been thinking about that design for nine years. It’s great.
KS：好吧。对你来说当然简单。
EM：我觉得超音速电动垂直升降飞机在将来什么时候可以搞。但不是现在，不然我的头都要炸了。但怎么设计我已经想了九年了。超棒的。
It’s great? It’s in your head?
Yeah. I mean, I wrote down some of it, but …
KS：超棒？在你脑子里？
EM：是啊。我的意思是，有些我写下来了，但 …
But the truck is more immediate, [and] the Roadster? When do those come online?
I think it’s literally the most exciting product lineup of any company in the world. Certainly from a consumer standpoint. I’ll just go through the things that are publicly announced.
You’ve got the Model Y, which is the midsize SUV. You’ve got the Semi truck, which is, can be great for really heavy transport. It’ll be like the heaviest class of truck, of industrial truck.
We’ve got the next-generation Roadster. Which will be the fastest sports car on every dimension. Fastest acceleration, fastest top speed, best handling. It’s important to have an electric sports car that’s faster than the fastest gasoline sports car. And it helps address that halo effect that gasoline sports cars have. So I think it’s important to do that to show that, you know, electric is the best architecture.
Then we’ve got the pickup truck, which — actually, I’m personally most excited about the pickup truck.
KS：但是卡车是更现实的，还有跑车。啥时上线？
EM：我觉得这绝对是世上最令人兴奋的产品系列，至少从消费者的角度看如此。我可以讲一下已经向公众宣布了的车型。我们有Model Y中型SUV，我们也有大卡车，适用于重型运货，可能是重型卡车里最重型的工业卡车。我们有下一代的跑车，不管从哪方面讲都将会是最快的跑车，最快的加速，最快的顶速，最好的控制。有一个比烧汽油的跑车更快的电动跑车很重要。消除了烧汽油的跑车所戴的光环。所以我认为搞电动跑车很重要，可以证明电动是最好的结构。我们还有皮卡，对我个人来说，是最让我兴奋的车型。
Why’s that?
Well I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic-like cyberpunk, “Blade Runner” pickup truck. It’s gonna be awesome, it’s gonna be amazing. This will be heart-stopping. It stops my heart. It’s like, oh, it’s great.
KS：为什么？
EM：呃，我还不能披露细节。但它真正像是来自科幻电影银翼杀手 (Blade Runner) 的未来卡车。超棒，超酷。让人心跳骤然停止。至少让我的心跳停止了，喔，太棒了。
Who do you wanna sell that to? People that buy F— whatever?
You know, I actually don’t know if a lot of people will buy this pickup truck or not, but I don’t care.
KS：你要卖给谁呢？那些买F—什么的人吗 (译注：指的是F-150，福特最畅销的皮卡)?
EM：其实我实际上也不知道会不会有很多人买这个皮卡，但是这对我无所谓。
Okay.
I mean I do care, eventually, you know. Like sure, I care. We wanna get gasoline, diesel pickup trucks off the road.
KS：那好吧。
EM：我的意思是最终还是有所谓的。好吧，我确实在意。我们要把所有烧汽油，烧柴油的皮卡统统赶下路。
Right.
It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. If there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about.
KS：对。
EM：这是我多年的心愿。即使是只有少数人喜欢那卡车，我猜想我们将来会搞出更加常规蹈矩的卡车。但这是让我个人最兴奋的项目。
Do you have a motorcycle?
No. I rode motorbikes a lot when I was a kid. So I did, like, dirt biking and then rode a motorcycle on the road. And then I almost got killed when I was 17. Most people are paralyzed, but depending on how you count it, the probability of death in a motorcycle versus —
KS：摩托车呢？
EM：没有。我小的时候常骑摩托车。我玩过越野摩托，也玩过路上骑的摩托。我17岁时差点死于车祸。很多人受伤瘫痪。看你怎么统计吧，摩托的车祸死亡比例相比 —-
It’s quite high.
It’s 25 times higher.
KS：挺高的。
EM：25倍。
Yeah, my brother is a doctor. He calls them donor-mobiles, actually.
Yeah. Like organ donors. So, we’re not gonna make motorcycles.
But a few more Tesla products that are cool: We’re almost done with the development of the solar tile roof. So we have those on a few hundred roofs right now. And we’re just doing testing to make sure they have long-term durability.
KS：是啊，我兄弟是医生。他管骑摩托的人叫donor-mobiles (器官捐赠车)。
EM：嗯。所以我们不搞摩托车。但是特斯拉还有几个很酷的产品：我们差不多已经完成了太阳能屋顶瓦片的开发。我们已经安装了几百个屋顶。我们正在测试，确认其耐久性。
These are tile roofs, these are tiles on the roofs? Yeah.
Yeah, the solar tile roof where it looks like a normal, beautiful tile roof. But it’s actually solar. And, like, that development process is longer than we’d like, because we’ve got to make sure that the roof’s gonna stand up for 30 years.
KS：这些是房顶瓦片？
EM：是的。太阳能房顶瓦片看上去和普通瓦片没有区别，但是太阳能的。开发的时间比我们原来预计的长了一点，因为我们需要确认房顶三十年不用换。
Sure.
And even when you do accelerated lab testing on a solar roof, it still takes a while. And we’ve gotta put a lot of work into making the installation process easy, so it doesn’t take ages to install a roof.
Then we’ve got the Powerwall battery storage system. We’ve got the Powerpack, which is used for utilities on industrial scale. We’re gonna have some other exciting announcements on the stationary storage front. So when you —
KS：当然。
EM：即使加快实验室里测试太阳能屋顶的进度，还是很花时间。我们花了很多力气确保安装过程容易，不用花很多时间安装。我们还有能源墙 (Powerwall) 电池存储系统。还有能源包 (Powerpack) 可以工业用。在静止的储存方面我们还有其它令人兴奋的消息。所以 —
This is within the homes?
I can’t talk more about it, but there’s —
KS：这是家用的吗？
EM：我还不便透露，但是 —
Presumably.
We have a large product on the stationary storage side that I think will be very compelling for utility customers.
KS：应该是吧。
EM：静止存储方面我们这个大的产品会很适合用电顾客。
Okay, all right. So, a Roadster. Any planes?
No plans to make planes at Tesla.
KS：OK，好吧。跑车有了，飞机呢？
EM：特斯拉没有造飞机的计划。
SpaceX and dying on Mars
【SpaceX和死在火星上】
Well let’s get to rockets, then. SpaceX. Last time we talked, you said you wanted to die on Mars, just not on landing. Which was a very funny joke, although it’s probably not a joke, it’s probably —
Well, it’d be ironic if that had happened. I have to be careful about tempting fate, because I think often the most ironic outcome is the most probable.
It just very often seems like reality tries to … Actually, technically, there’s a friend of mine, Jonah Nolan, who had this like modification of Occam’s razor where he said he thinks “the most ironic outcome is the most likely.” And then I think that there’s some truth to that. And then also I think sometimes the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
KS：那我们来聊聊火箭和SpaceX。上次你说你要死在火星上，但不要在降落时。你还挺会开玩笑的，只是或许这不是玩笑话 —
EM： 那就太有讽刺意味了。我得小心点，不能拿命运开玩笑，因为我觉得有时最有讽刺意味的结果反倒是最有可能发生的。就好像现实力图… 其实，我有个朋友，Jonah Nolan，他对奥卡姆剃刀原则做了修改 (译注，奥卡姆剃刀原则是指同一件事情如果有两个不同的解释，应该取假定少的那个)，说最有讽刺意味的结果反倒是最有可能发生的。我觉得好像有点道理。不过，有时也有可能是最好玩的结果最有可能。
Instead of discussing your death, let’s discuss what’s going on at SpaceX. What are some of the things you’re doing?
We successfully launched the Falcon Heavy rocket, which is the most powerful rocket in the world by a factor of two. So that’s twice the power, twice the thrust of the next biggest rocket. And we actually launched a Tesla — my Tesla Roadster — to Mars orbit. The reason we did that is actually because, normally, when a new rocket is launched, you just put a dummy payload, which is like a block of concrete or something.
KS：与其讨论你怎么死，还是让我们聊聊SpaceX。那边什么情况？
EM：我们成功发射了猎鹰重型运载火箭，是世界上动力最大的火箭，是其它的至少两倍。我们真的把一辆特斯拉 – 我的特斯拉跑车送上了火星轨道。我们之所以这样做其实是因为当发射一枚新的火箭时，通常都是用的假的载货，像是一块混泥土什么的。
Right. Not creative in any way.
Super-boring. So we were like, okay, what is the least boring thing we can launch?
And then next year, the exciting things are we’re gonna be launching astronauts for the first time to the space station. It’ll really be the first time a vehicle from the United States launches astronauts into orbit since the Space Shuttle, which —
KS：就是，完全没有创意。
EM：超无聊。所以我们说，那发射个啥不会那么无聊呢？明年，最令人兴奋的是我们要第一次把宇航员送上空间站。这会是美国在航天飞机之后第一次将宇航员送到轨道上，—
Which has been some years, right?
2010 or something like that? Since then, the United States has relied upon the Russian Soyuz, which actually recently has had some issues.
KS：航天飞机？那有不少年了？
EM：2010年左右？从那以后美国都是用的俄国的联盟号。但联盟号最近有些问题。
Donald Trump’s Space Force and colonizing beyond Earth
【特朗普的太空部队和地球以外的殖民地】
What do you think of the Space Force? The Trump Space Force?
Well, this may be a little controversial, but I actually like the idea. I think it’s cool. You know, like, when the Air Force was formed, there was a lot of like pooh-poohing, and like, “Oh, how silly to have an Air Force!” You know, because the aircraft in World War II were managed by the Army.
KS：你怎么看特朗普提出的太空部队？
EM：这个虽有争议，但我实际上喜欢这个想法。我觉得很酷。你知道，当年组建空军的时候，很多人都埋汰这个建议，”喔，真是傻透了，搞什么空军!” 因为二战时期飞机是归属陆军管的。
Right.
And so you had the Army and the Navy and the Coast Guard and the Marines, and then … it became pretty obvious that you really needed a specialized division to manage aircraft. And so the Air Force was created.
And people today may not realize back then it was wildly panned as a ridiculous thing to create the Air Force, but now everyone’s like, “Obviously, you should have an Air Force.” And I think it’s gonna become obvious that we should have a Space Force, too.
KS：对。
EM：而且，我们有陆军，海军，海岸警卫队，和海军陆战队… 然后，我们显然有必要建立一支管理飞机的军种，所以空军就创立了。大家可能没意识到当年创建空军被认为是一个极端异想天开的想法，现在大家都认为那是理所当然的。所以，我觉得我们也会认为建立太空部队是个显而易见的想法。
Out there, to do what?
You know, it’s basically defense in space. And then I think also it could be pretty helpful for maybe expanding our civilization … You know, expanding things beyond Earth.
I think we could just have a base on the moon, for example. A base on Mars. Be great to expand on the idea of a Space Force. Anyone who has an exploratory spirit, and I think that especially applies to a country like the United States, where you know it’s kind of the distillation of the spirit of human exploration. I think the idea of being out there among the stars and among the planets is very exciting.
KS：那么在太空中，做什么？
EM：基本上就是太空防御吧。而且我也觉得对在地球之外扩张我们人类文明也是会有帮助的。比如我认为我们索性在月球上建一个基地。火星上也建一个基地。要扩展太空部队的概念。任何具有探索精神的人，特别像美国这样的国家，孕育人类探索的精神。我觉得在星空中星球间搞点啥特别让人兴奋。
All right. And, Mars. Last time we talked, it was 2024, was it? That you talked about getting there?
Yeah, we’re still aiming for 2024.
KS：好吧，火星。上次我们聊的时候你说2024年上火星？
EM：是的，我们目标还是2024年。
Okay. And you going? Or someone going?
I don’t know if I will go or not. It may be just an unmanned mission, you know. I’m not sure if there’ll be people onboard or not.
But there is a Mars rendezvous opportunity, ’cause you can only do a launch to Mars roughly every two years. So around the 2024 timeframe, there’s a rendezvous opportunity for Mars, which hopefully we can catch. There’s one in 2022 —
KS：OK。那你自己上去吗？或者是其他什么人？
EM：我不知道我上不上去。或许不载人。我不知道是不是载人。但是这是一个火星和人类会合的机会。因为每两年才有一次发射至火星的机会。所以，大约在2024年左右，是一个火星和人类会合的机会。但在2022年 —
So an unmanned flight to Mars?
Hopefully, there are people on board. But I think there’s a pretty good chance of at least having an unmanned craft go to Mars. I think we will try to do this.
KS：不载人去火星？
EM：我希望载人上去。但我觉得至少搞一个不载人的火星发射是很有成功的可能的。
Do you think NASA should continue to exist, or all these space agencies by the government?
Yeah, I certainly think NASA should continue to exist, NASA does a lot of really useful things, and these go beyond astronaut transport. There are missions to rovers on Mars that are thanks to NASA. There are these planetary probes, there’s the Hubble Telescope. NASA does a tremendous amount of good, and ideally we should actually increase the budget of NASA. I think it’s high time that we went beyond Earth orbit again. I think it’s very exciting and inspiring, and I think it really gets the whole world fired up.
When the first humans stepped foot on the Moon, it was probably the most inspiring thing, maybe in history? We should try to do more of that stuff.
KS：你觉得NASA（美国国家航空航天局）有存在的必要吗？所有那些政府的航天机构有存在的必要吗？
EM：是的。我觉得NASA绝对有继续存在的必要。NASA做很多有意义的事，不单单是送宇航员去太空。NASA开发了火星探测车。很多星球探索的项目，哈勃望远镜。NASA做了很多有意义的项目。如果有可能的话应该增加他们的预算。我觉得是超越地球轨道的时候了。我认为这太让人激动和鼓舞人心了，让全世界都振奋。当年人类第一次踏上月球那次或许是历史上最让人振奋的事。我们要多搞些这样的事。
How do you look at what [Jeff] Bezos is doing with Blue Origin, because I suppose that’s the most comparable private thing going on?
Yeah, I think it’s great that Jeff is spending lots of money on space. I think it will encounter some challenges getting to orbit; it’s remarkably difficult getting to orbit. But he has the resources to overcome those difficulties. He’s got some spare change in the couch, I think.
KS：你怎么看杰夫·贝索斯 (译注：亚马逊的老大) 在搞的Blue Origin (蓝色起源) 项目？或许是和你搞的最有可比性的私营项目。
EM：我觉得杰夫花这么多钱在太空项目上真是太棒了。我认为他可能在是否能到轨道上会遇到一些挑战。上去到轨道是非常困难的。但是他有资源克服这些困难。你知道他很有钱，沙发缝里掉的零钱就够他折腾一阵了。
You’re not buying a newspaper, are you?
No, I don’t generally acquire things.
KS：你不会买个报社吧？
EM：我一般啥都不买。
Yeah, just curious.
I create companies, but I don’t really acquire them. So I wouldn’t … I have no plans. It does seem to be popular these days.
KS：是啊，我只是有点好奇。（译注：杰·夫贝索斯买下了华盛顿邮报）
EM：我创建公司，而不是买公司。所以，我不会 … 我没有计划 (买报社或公司)。但是，现在的确似乎很流行 (并购)。
The Boring Company, dad jokes and drilling technology
【Boring公司，爸爸的玩笑，和钻洞的技术】
So let’s finish up the last two things. Boring Company, I was just with Eric Garcetti in Los Angeles —
Oh, great, yeah. Eric’s been a great supporter.
KS：最后我们来说说Boring公司。我刚刚见了洛杉矶市市长Eric Garcetti —
EM：喔。Eric对我们很支持。
Yeah, he has. He says, “Anything to cut traffic.” He doesn’t care. I was like, “Why do you think these people are interested in traffic so much?” And he said, “Because no matter how rich you are, everybody can get caught in traffic. And so they just want to do something about it.”
Yeah, Eric’s been really supportive of our activity in L.A. I mean, technically, our first tunnels are in Hawthorne. But we do expect to, over time, create a network of tunnels under greater L.A. And I think this is really the key to getting around the city very fast. You’ve got to go 3-D. Our offices are 3-D and dense, but we then have a 2-D road transport network.
KS：是的。他说，“只要是能解决堵车的问题 (他都支持),” 那我说，“为什么大家对交通问题都这么有兴趣?” 他说, “因为不管你多有钱，堵车时都一样。所以大家都希望能做点什么。”
EM：是的。Eric一直很支持我们在洛杉矶的工作。我的意思是，准确地说，我们挖的隧道是在Hawthorne（译注：洛杉矶郡下面的一个城市）。但是我们预期在大洛杉矶地区建立隧道网，而且我相信这是解决交通问题的关键。必须靠三维的解决办法，我们的办公室是三维紧凑的，可是我们的道路和交通网却是二维的。
So you’re thinking all around, lots of roads within the tunnels?
Yeah, many levels of tunnels, so —
KS：所以你要搞隧道？
EM：是的，多层次的隧道，所以 —
Right, like a subway system?
Yeah, but even subways tend to be essentially two-dimensional. You’ll have a subway cross another subway, but they’ve never really tried to make many layers of subways. The cost of tunneling, historically, has been prohibitive. And they’ve also been incredibly slow. The typical cost for a subway, per-mile cost for a subway in the U.S. has been about a billion dollars a mile, so that is not a very scalable solution.
KS：对，就像地铁系统？
EM：是的，但是即便是地铁也基本上是二维的。地铁线和另一条地铁线交叉，但基本上没有多层次。隧道的成本历来都是非常高的，而且还很慢。典型的地铁的成本在美国差不多是十个亿一英里。所以这不是一个可扩展的解决方案。
So tunnels?
You could certainly have a subway system which had many layers of tunnels, but the tunnels are so prohibitively expensive that they don’t do it. But you can go down 100 levels if you want to; you could have 100 layers of tunnels on top of each other. You can go further down than you can go up. So the deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings. But, really, the key is a massive improvement in tunneling technology. That’s the linchpin, that’s fundamentally what it amounts to. And as I got sort of digging into tunnels … Ha-ha, good one.
KS：所以要搞隧道？
EM：你当然也可以搞多层次的地铁系统，但是这会非常昂贵，只能放弃。你可以下去一百层；你可以搞一百层的地铁隧道，层层叠加。上不去，但是你可以一直往下去。所以最深的矿比最高的摩天楼要深的多。但是，关键是隧道技术要有突破型的进展，这才是关键，才是根本。当我深入挖掘和探索这个隧道问题 … 哈哈，一语双关。
Do you say that? Please don’t do that, you need to stop. Is that how you amuse yourself?
Yeah, yeah, no, I’ve got a million of ’em.
KS：别这样。你就这样自娱自乐啊？
EM：对啊，对啊。不是的。我还有无数（其它的方法自娱自乐）。
“Digging in?”
Tunnels are really so under-appreciated. They have no place to go but down.
KS：“深入挖掘?”
EM：隧道实在被世人看轻了，其地位低的不能再低了。
Oh my god. All right, okay. These are dad jokes, you know that?
I am a dad, so —
KS：我的天呢。好吧，好吧。江湖上传说着所谓的爸爸玩笑，你知道吗？（译注：伊隆曾经发过推特，说有人说他发明了很多爸爸玩笑。但是他也不解释什么玩笑。大家都觉得云里雾里，不知道他在说啥）
EM：我是当爹的，所以 —
I’m glad you’re amused with yourself, go ahead.
No, no, it’s a terrible habit. I laugh at my own jokes, even with the terrible ones. So, what I discovered is that there are massive improvements possible in tunneling technology.
KS：我很高兴你自己在那乐，请继续说。
EM：不，不，这是个很不好的习惯。我常常对我自己的玩笑开怀大笑，甚至是一些糟透了的玩笑。所以，我发现隧道技术有长足进步的可能性。
When will one be useful? The Hawthorne one, it’s a test tunnel?
Yeah, we’re about to finish the first test tunnel.
KS：啥时这玩意（隧道）能用啊？你在Hawthorne挖的隧道是用来试验的吗？
EM：是的，我们很快就可以完成这个试验隧道了。
At what cost?
I don’t know, I think it’s probably … Excluding the equipment, probably cost us $10 million for a mile. It’s one-way, admittedly, but —
KS：花了多少成本？
EM：我还不知道。我想大约 … 除了设备，大约一英里一千万美元。但是这只是单向的隧道。但 —
So when will people be able to use it, actually use it?
We’re planning on having an opening party on Dec. 10th, in six weeks.
KS：那么什么时候这个隧道可以用，实用？
EM：我们计划在12月10日揭幕，六个星期后。
Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi investors and techlash
【Jamal Khashoggi，沙特投资者，和高科技霸权的后果】
One thing I didn’t ask: When you had been looking to go private with Tesla, you had talked to the Saudis. How do you feel about them now? I ask every internet executive this now, given the amount of money they have in the system.
Yeah, well I mean, it’s important to appreciate that the Saudis have been approaching me for two years about going private. It wasn’t like spur-of-the-moment.
KS：有件事我还没问你：但你在探索特斯拉私营化的时候，你跟沙特有接触。你现在对他们怎么看？(译注：据报道，沙特谋杀了一位著名的反对派记者，这一事件在国际上引起了轩然大波)。因为沙特的钱对高科技行业有巨大的影响，我跟每个我采访的高科技企业高管都问这个问题。
EM：是的。我的意思是沙特因为私营的问题已经跟我接触有两年了。这不是心血来潮。
But I’m talking about in the wake of Khashoggi’s murder.
Yeah, I mean, that sounds pretty bad. So … that is not good. That is bad.
KS：我问的是在Khashoggi被谋杀的情况下，你的看法。
EM：是的，这件事看起来糟透了。所以 … 很不好，真的很糟。
That is bad.
That was really bad, it was really —
KS：很糟糕。
EM：那实在是很糟，真的 —
Would you take their money now?
I think we probably would not, yes.
KS：你现在会拿他们的投资吗？
EM：我想不会。
Okay, and what about their influence in Silicon Valley, given the billions that are being poured in here?
I know I can’t speak to that, I mean, it’s not … Saudi Arabia’s an entire country, so I think you don’t want to, if there’s one really bad thing that occurred, nail down the whole country, it’s not great.
KS：OK。你怎么看他们对硅谷的影响，他们在硅谷投了几十亿？
EM：我知道我不能乱说。我的意思是，不能怪沙特整个国家。一件糟糕的事件发生了，不能怪罪于整个国家，那也不对。
It’s their ruler.
Sure.
KS：是他们的统治者。
EM：当然。
It’s their ruler, it’s the guy who runs everything.
They didn’t elect him, you know?
KS：是他们的统治者，是统管一切的家伙。
EM：他不是选上去的，不是吗？
No, they didn’t, that’s right. No, I get that, I’m not impugning all Saudis, but it is the government.
I think we should just consider that there is a whole country, and there’s, you know … There are a lot of good people in Saudi Arabia, and Saudis who are outside of Saudi Arabia. So I think you cannot paint an entire country with one brush.
KS：是没选他，那是对的。我明白，我不是抹黑所有沙特人，只是说他们的政府。
EM：我只是觉得我们要考虑那是整个国家，对吧 … 沙特阿拉伯有很多好人。沙特阿拉伯之外也有很多沙特人。所以我觉得不能一刷子抹黑整个国家。
No, no, I’m just talking about the people who have the money.
I think there are serious issues, it’s not good.
KS：不，不，我只是说那些有钱的人。
EM：我觉得这里面有大文章。不是好事。
And what about the techlash itself? You had been a critic of how — the responsibility around AI, around diversity of AI. About the power that’s held by Facebook and Google and others, in previous interviews we’ve done. How do you look at that now?
It probably makes sense if something is responsible for a public good, and could potentially negatively affect elections or something like that, that there probably should be some regulatory oversight to ensure that we’re not negatively affecting the democratic process. That the quality of news is good and not unduly influenced. These seem like sensible things.
KS：那么你对高科技霸权的后果怎么看？（译注：Techlash是《经济学人》杂志创造的一个新词，指的是一些高科技公司实力过于强大而招致社会普遍的不满情绪）你自己也批评 — AI领域所涉及的责任，AI的多样性。脸书，谷歌和其它一些公司所具有的强大的影响力。我们在以前的采访中也谈到了这些问题。你现在怎么看？
EM：或许有些原本是为公众带来好处的东西会反过来，比如干扰选举什么的。或许 (政府) 应该有相应的管控职能以确保不会损害民主进程。确保新闻的质量，不至于被操控。这些似乎是应该做的事。
At the time we’d talked a couple years ago, you were worried about the power that Google and Facebook were assembling in AI, and you were worried about AI itself. And I think one of the things that you had said that really struck me was that it wasn’t going to kill us, it would treat us like house cats. I thought that was a really striking way to think about it.
In the long term, as AI gets probably much smarter than humans, the relative intelligence ratio is probably similar to that between a person and a cat, maybe bigger. I do think we need to be very careful about the advancement of AI and —
KS：一两年前我们聊时你担忧谷歌和脸书在AI方面所积聚的力量，你甚至对AI本身也有忧虑。我记得你还说过 (AI) 不会杀了我们人类，但会把我们当成宠物猫，这给我留下了很深的印象。我觉得这让我想想都头大。
EM：从长远看，随着AI变的比人类更聪明，AI相对人类的智力比率可能跟人与猫的比率差不多，甚至更大。我的确相信我们要对AI的发展格外小心，还有 —
And you’re still worried about it in that way?
My recommendation for the longest time has been consistent. I think we ought to have a government committee that starts off with insight, gaining insight. Spends a year or two gaining insight about AI or other technologies that are maybe dangerous, but especially AI. And then, based on that insight, comes up with rules in consultation with industry that give the highest probability for a safe advent of AI.
KS：你还是有相同的焦虑？
EM：我所提出的建议好久以来都是一致的。我认为我们应该成立一个政府的委员会开始积累认知。化一两年的时间了解AI和其它可能是危险的技术，特别是AI。然后基于所积累的认知和业界协作，搞出一些规则，尽其所能指导AI的健康发展。
You think that — do you see that happening?
I do not.
KS：你觉得这会如你所言发生吗？
EM：不会。
How is Musk feeling about the future?
【马斯克怎么看未来】
How are you feeling about the future, when what appears to be reality …?
For some reason, I feel optimistic. And I’m not sure if that is irrational or not.
KS：你怎么看未来，当未来成为现实的时候？
EM：不知道为啥，我对未来很乐观。我不知道这是不是理性的看法。
Does this polarization affect you? You’ve pulled yourself off the Trump councils, I know you and I talked about whether … I said you shouldn’t go, ’cause he was gonna screw you, remember?
Well, you were right.
KS：这样的两极分化的感觉有影响到你吗？你撤出了特朗普的 (科技委员会)。我们以前也谈到过是否 … 我说你应该撤出，因为他会搞你。你记得吗？
EM：是的，你是对的。
I am right, thank you, Elon. I know that. But you feel, in the midst of this polarization, these bombings, the president continually being divisive, you feel optimistic?
Yeah. By the way, I still think it was worth trying to be on the Trump councils, and especially just to be an advocate for climate, I did my absolute best.
KS：我对了，谢谢你，伊隆。我知道。但是在这两极分化的惊涛漩涡中，总统一如既往地分裂大众。你仍旧持乐观态度？
EM：是的。顺便说一句，我仍旧认为值得试试呆在特朗普的委员会里，特别是推动涉及到气候方面的努力。我尽我所能了。
Yes, I know you did. I think I called you, I think I said, “You’re not Jesus, it’s not going to work.”
I definitely do not think I am Jesus.
KS：是的，我知道你尽力了。我记得我打电话给你，我说，“你不是耶稣，这事没希望。”
EM：我绝对不会认为我是耶稣。
No, I know you don’t. I think I was just trying to egg you into getting off the councils.
Arguably, it was unlikely, but it was worth a shot, yeah.
KS：我知道你不会这么认为。我想我就是试图劝你离开那个委员会。
EM：说实话，不太可能有什么作为。但值得试一试。
Right, would you do it again?
Do you mean now, or …?
KS：好吧，你会再试一试吗？
EM：你的意思是现在，还是 … ？
Yeah.
I don’t know, are there councils?
KS：是的，现在。
EM：我不知道。还有委员会吗？
No. But you’re optimistic, given all this polarization? Are you thinking about the midterm elections?
I am thinking about the midterm elections, and I did vote, by the way.
KS：没有了。但是即便是意见分化的局面，你仍持乐观的态度。你想过中期选举吗？
EM：有想过中期选举。我已经投过票了，顺便说一下。
Me, too. Today.
Though I do wonder what effect a vote in California has. There’s so much gerrymandering of electoral districts that it seems like … I voted for the sake of voting, but things are very divisive right now, politically. But it’s probably not wise for me to wade into political debates, it’s a no-win situation.
KS：今天我也投了。
EM：但是，我纳闷在加州投票有啥意义。这么多通过选区的划分操纵选举结果，好像是 … 我只是为投票而投票，现在人们在好多问题上意见分歧。但是，或许我不应该辩论政治，趟这摊浑水，是赢不了的。
Right, I got it. But how do you feel — as a citizen, how do you feel?
I definitely wish people wouldn’t yell at each other quite so much, I wish there was less hate.
KS：对，我理解。但是你是怎么感觉的 — 作为一个公民，你什么感觉？
EM：我绝对希望人们都能心平气和，不要互相谩骂，我希望少一些仇恨。
If he got one redo on something from 2018, what would he redo?
【如果2018年能重来，什么事你会推倒重来】
Right, okay, my last question. If you had to redo anything this year, Elon, what would it be?
It’s fair to say I would probably not have tweeted some of the things I tweeted, that was probably unwise. And probably not gotten into some of the online fights that I got into. I probably shouldn’t have attacked journalists, probably shouldn’t have done that.
KS：好，OK，我的最后一个问题。如果能够重来，伊隆，会是今年哪件事？
EM：或许我可能不会发有某些推特吧。或许那是够蠢的。或许不应卷入一些网上的争议。或许我不该攻击某些记者，不应该干那些事。
I don’t know why you do it.
Yes.
KS：我不知道你为啥要做这些事。
EM：嗯。
Yeah, do you want to say you’re sorry? You can if you want.
I’m sorry to some journalists.
KS：你想说对不起吗？如果你想道歉你可以道歉。
EM：对有些记者，对不起。
Okay, I’ll give you that, I’ll give you that. Okay, I’ll give you that. Elon, podcast secured.
Thank you, Kara. It was great to see you.
KS：OK。你做的对。伊隆，
EM：谢谢你，Kara。很高兴能跟你聚聚。
It’s been a really fascinating discussion, and I will think about buying an electric car, probably not.
I mean, why not?
KS: 非常好的讨论。我会考虑买一个电动汽车，但大概不会买。
EM：为什么不买电动车？
Make a scooter. Make a scooter and I’ll go for it. They actually are electric, what am I talking about?
I don’t know, there was some people in the studio who wanted to make a scooter, but I was like, “Uh, no.”
KS： 搞一个滑行车吧。你搞出来，我就买。实际上是电动的，我说啥呢？
EM：我不知道。摄影棚里有些人也说搞滑行车，但我跟他们说，“不，不要。”
I love the scooter, no, get on the scooter.
It lacks dignity.
KS：我喜欢滑行车。不，你做个滑行车。
EM：滑行车缺乏庄重感。
No, it doesn’t lack dignity.
Yes, they do.
KS：哪里。不缺乏庄重感。
EM：是的，缺乏庄重感。
They don’t lack dignity, what are you talking about?
Have you tried driving one of those things? They —
KS：怎么会缺乏庄重感。你说啥呢？
EM：你试过用那些玩意吗？他们 —
Yes, I do it all the time, I look fantastic.
They do not, you are laboring under an illusion.
KS：是的，我经常用，我看起来很棒。
EM：怎么可能，你的错觉吧。
All right, well, everybody at Lime, don’t worry, Elon Musk is not coming for you.
Electric bike. I think we might do an electric bike, yeah.
KS：好吧。Lime的兄弟姐妹们，别担心，伊隆不会来抢你们的饭碗 (译注：Lime是一个搞共享滑行车的初创企业)。
EM：电动自行车。我想我们可能会搞电动自行车。
All right, perhaps. All right, Elon Musk, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
That was a pleasure, thank you. It was good to see you.
KS：行，去搞吧。好吧，伊隆 马斯克，谢谢你，我很感激。
EM：很荣幸，谢谢你。很高兴有这个机会。
Source：https://www.recode.net