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Category Archives: 大盘

Tommy 老师每周看盘

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经Tommy 老师本人同意，本站转发Tommy的每周看盘：

 

（11/05/2017）重磅消息出台市场稳中有升，假日季节后市有望高位盘整。上周在众多重磅消息下标普波动范围2566-2588仅22点，万众期待的sell on news的回调在周三高开低走到周四的早盘的新低看似凶猛可再次夭折，周五在苹果季报和不算差的非农下三大指数又创新高，显示市场依然是buy dip模式。税改方案，美联储主席任命已及FOMC会议决议都在大家的预料之中，早些时候谣传的企业税率逐步缩减的修正并未出现，可最终减税计划实现多少还是未知，所以上周未对市场带来冲击。目前重要季报基本结束，整体利好明显，又马上进入历史上表现最好的月份，在税改方案没有最终定稿前，很难期待市场有深度回调，目前看可望继续高位盘整，预计下周标普波动范围2570-2600，三周来底部逐步提高，看能否最终冲一下2600，至少感恩节前牛牛还有希望。下周消息面比较平静，估计还是围绕税改以及国会何时投票波动。川普访问亚洲或许有些利好，中美关系的稳定以及朝鲜问题的有效解决是大家关心的问题。板块方面，高科技一马当先，金融高位盘整，能源和制药呈反弹态势，显示主力资金依然在股市里不断追逐热点，大趋势依然是逢低做多，管理好仓位并系好安全带还可以继续与疯牛共舞，傻牛和聪明的熊都可以赚钱。祝大家交易愉快！

国庆后第一天的历史统计

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tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
SPY 1999-07-06 100.35 101.44 99.88 139.38 -0.02 0.13
SPY 2000-07-05 106.57 106.77 105.11 144.63 -1.80 0.77
SPY 2001-07-05 90.60 91.03 89.56 121.68 -1.95 -2.16
SPY 2002-07-05 72.22 74.27 72.13 99.31 3.98 -1.25
SPY 2003-07-07 75.63 76.58 75.63 100.70 1.99 0.45
SPY 2004-07-06 86.64 86.70 86.07 111.89 -0.88 0.29
SPY 2005-07-05 93.78 94.88 93.73 120.49 0.80 -0.84
SPY 2006-07-05 101.91 102.04 101.29 127.07 -0.57 0.29
SPY 2007-07-05 124.25 124.38 123.62 152.18 -0.11 0.53
SPY 2008-07-07 105.46 105.91 103.07 125.02 -1.02 1.78
SPY 2009-07-06 75.97 76.82 75.73 89.80 -0.01 -1.94
SPY 2010-07-06 90.22 90.86 88.69 102.87 0.66 3.15
SPY 2011-07-05 118.80 119.06 118.45 133.81 -0.08 0.12
SPY 2012-07-05 124.15 124.97 123.60 136.79 -0.45 -0.95
SPY 2013-07-05 150.63 151.20 149.55 163.02 1.08 0.57
SPY 2014-07-07 187.01 187.16 186.45 197.51 -0.35 -0.64
SPY 2015-07-06 198.35 200.17 198.12 206.72 -0.28 0.63
SPY 2016-07-05 205.79 205.91 204.57 208.41 -0.72 0.60
tick count(date) expectChg sd expectNxDay
SPY 18 0.015000 1.336693 0.085000
tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
QQQ 1999-07-06 52.93 53.47 52.04 116.75 -0.63 0.15
QQQ 2000-07-05 83.91 84.22 81.45 91.56 -3.88 2.67
QQQ 2001-07-05 40.21 40.49 38.94 43.45 -4.79 -4.13
QQQ 2002-07-05 22.64 23.65 22.45 26.34 6.45 -3.64
QQQ 2003-07-07 27.76 28.59 27.75 31.89 4.27 1.22
QQQ 2004-07-06 32.82 32.82 32.12 36.03 -2.15 0.22
QQQ 2005-07-05 33.16 33.69 33.16 37.11 1.02 -0.48
QQQ 2006-07-05 35.14 35.18 34.64 38.15 -2.17 -0.12
QQQ 2007-07-05 44.10 44.50 44.06 48.66 0.73 0.41
QQQ 2008-07-07 41.22 41.60 40.49 44.90 0.61 2.39
QQQ 2009-07-06 32.54 32.69 32.23 35.41 -0.52 -2.49
QQQ 2010-07-06 39.94 40.19 39.15 42.60 0.30 3.19
QQQ 2011-07-05 54.15 54.42 54.02 58.20 0.50 0.31
QQQ 2012-07-05 61.15 61.54 60.82 64.93 0.07 -1.24
QQQ 2013-07-05 69.28 69.44 68.73 72.58 0.75 0.10
QQQ 2014-07-07 92.83 92.94 92.48 95.41 -0.30 -1.20
QQQ 2015-07-06 105.29 106.32 105.06 107.70 -0.24 0.26
QQQ 2016-07-05 106.70 106.85 106.04 107.42 -0.62 0.83
tick count(date) expectChg sd expectNxDay
QQQ 18 -0.033333 2.485485 -0.086111

First Day July History performance

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First Day July History performance:

tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
QQQ 1999-07-01 51.81 52.29 50.92 116.03 0.68 1.25
QQQ 2000-07-03 83.80 85.37 83.57 95.25 1.95 -3.88
QQQ 2001-07-02 40.91 41.66 40.50 45.45 -0.56 0.42
QQQ 2002-07-01 23.28 23.43 22.21 24.85 -4.79 -3.64
QQQ 2003-07-01 26.62 27.23 26.22 30.35 1.34 2.06
QQQ 2004-07-01 33.77 33.77 32.97 37.04 -1.86 -0.60
QQQ 2005-07-01 33.40 33.52 33.23 36.73 -0.12 1.02
QQQ 2006-07-03 35.37 35.47 35.30 39.00 0.60 -2.17
QQQ 2007-07-02 43.53 43.84 43.50 48.03 0.90 0.59
QQQ 2008-07-01 41.01 41.97 40.89 45.81 1.40 -2.39
QQQ 2009-07-01 33.63 33.88 33.47 36.40 0.06 -2.21
QQQ 2010-07-01 39.70 39.81 38.71 42.59 -0.28 -0.28
QQQ 2011-07-01 53.32 54.17 53.17 57.91 1.52 0.50
QQQ 2012-07-02 60.60 60.72 60.24 64.35 0.28 0.84
QQQ 2013-07-01 68.62 69.15 68.51 71.71 0.62 0.04
QQQ 2014-07-01 91.52 92.44 91.48 94.94 1.10 0.16
QQQ 2015-07-01 106.13 106.35 105.44 107.92 0.80 0.03
QQQ 2016-07-01 106.68 107.67 106.64 108.08 0.51 -0.62
tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
SPY 1999-07-01 98.73 99.81 98.06 138.03 0.75 1.00
SPY 2000-07-03 105.88 107.34 105.70 147.28 1.38 -1.80
SPY 2001-07-02 90.40 91.52 90.27 124.13 1.25 -0.02
SPY 2002-07-01 74.01 74.47 72.30 97.03 -1.95 -2.12
SPY 2003-07-01 73.81 75.03 73.19 98.53 0.92 1.26
SPY 2004-07-01 88.09 88.20 86.80 112.94 -1.39 -0.05
SPY 2005-07-01 93.93 94.21 93.74 119.53 0.29 0.80
SPY 2006-07-03 102.02 102.48 101.92 127.80 0.41 -0.57
SPY 2007-07-02 123.01 123.86 122.92 151.79 0.90 0.36
SPY 2008-07-01 105.23 106.85 104.74 128.38 0.31 -1.71
SPY 2009-07-01 78.87 79.64 78.76 92.33 0.41 -2.73
SPY 2010-07-01 89.80 90.09 88.04 102.76 -0.45 -0.54
SPY 2011-07-01 117.30 119.08 117.02 133.92 1.48 -0.08
SPY 2012-07-02 123.77 123.92 122.90 136.51 0.30 0.66
SPY 2013-07-01 149.51 150.64 149.34 161.36 0.59 -0.09
SPY 2014-07-01 185.48 186.83 185.41 197.03 0.67 0.10
SPY 2015-07-01 200.24 200.53 199.11 207.50 0.80 -0.09
SPY 2016-07-01 206.31 207.30 206.12 209.92 0.21 -0.72

 

In summary, SPY: expecting +0.38% with stddev of 0.85%,  QQQ: expecting  +0.23% with stddev of 1.49%! 

Last Day of June History Performance

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Last Day of June History Performance:

tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
QQQ 1999-06-30 50.91 53.72 50.31 115.25 1.55 0.68
QQQ 2000-06-30 82.29 84.20 81.84 93.44 1.96 1.95
QQQ 2001-06-29 40.41 41.69 40.06 45.70 3.04 -0.56
QQQ 2002-06-28 23.35 23.97 23.17 26.10 -0.43 -4.79
QQQ 2003-06-30 27.03 27.19 26.71 29.95 0.41 1.34
QQQ 2004-06-30 33.58 33.98 33.49 37.74 0.98 -1.86
QQQ 2005-06-30 33.65 33.71 33.30 36.78 -0.80 -0.12
QQQ 2006-06-30 35.58 35.60 35.18 38.77 -0.48 0.60
QQQ 2007-06-29 43.59 43.68 43.07 47.60 0.16 0.90
QQQ 2008-06-30 41.65 41.94 41.32 45.17 -1.05 1.40
QQQ 2009-06-30 33.62 33.78 33.21 36.38 -0.18 0.06
QQQ 2010-06-30 40.06 40.47 39.52 42.71 -1.52 -0.28
QQQ 2011-06-30 52.78 53.33 52.75 57.05 1.33 1.52
QQQ 2012-06-29 59.80 60.52 59.62 64.16 3.15 0.28
QQQ 2013-06-28 67.85 68.56 67.70 71.27 0.13 0.62
QQQ 2014-06-30 91.02 91.42 90.96 93.91 0.18 1.10
QQQ 2015-06-30 105.51 105.73 104.77 107.07 0.35 0.80
QQQ 2016-06-30 105.69 106.80 105.33 107.54 1.16 0.51
tick date open high low close pctchg ndpctchg
SPY 1999-06-30 97.02 99.09 96.46 137.00 1.81 0.75
SPY 2000-06-30 104.79 106.00 104.76 145.28 0.76 1.38
SPY 2001-06-29 90.40 91.29 90.00 122.60 0.37 1.25
SPY 2002-06-28 74.05 74.99 73.78 98.96 -0.47 -1.95
SPY 2003-06-30 74.55 74.89 73.98 97.63 -0.03 0.92
SPY 2004-06-30 87.95 88.50 87.62 114.53 0.54 -1.39
SPY 2005-06-30 94.54 94.62 93.54 119.18 -0.54 0.29
SPY 2006-06-30 102.11 102.20 101.64 127.28 0.01 0.41
SPY 2007-06-29 123.03 123.64 121.60 150.43 0.03 0.90
SPY 2008-06-30 106.37 107.22 105.88 127.98 0.35 0.31
SPY 2009-06-30 79.20 79.49 77.96 91.95 -0.81 0.41
SPY 2010-06-30 90.47 91.30 89.56 103.22 -0.95 -0.45
SPY 2011-06-30 116.45 117.38 116.07 131.97 0.96 1.48
SPY 2012-06-29 122.61 123.58 122.29 136.10 2.49 0.30
SPY 2013-06-28 148.93 149.64 148.21 160.42 -0.41 0.59
SPY 2014-06-30 185.01 185.45 184.85 195.72 -0.05 0.67
SPY 2015-06-30 199.79 199.85 197.88 205.85 0.21 0.80
SPY 2016-06-30 204.07 206.37 203.43 209.48 1.36 0.21

 In Summary:  SPY  Expect +0.32% （with +-0.87% Stddev）    QQQ Expect +0.55% ( with +-1.27% Stddev)

市场广度图解（Update Every 5 Minutes between 9:45 to 16:15 ET ）

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图例： 每组数据的四条不同色柱子从左到右依次代表： 个股涨跌比例， 成交量涨跌比例，资金流涨跌比例 和总成交金额。

Result for 2025-07-03: refreshed at 19:36:40

intr-day market breath chart

intr-day sector breath chart

intr-day market breath chart

intr-day sector breath chart

intr-day market breath chart Breadth Score: Positive score(blue line) means bullish, score value range from -4 to +4 mean range day, score > 7 or <-7 means trending day

To check previous day’s breadth, click here

5/20/2017 SP500 wave structure analysis by Seed

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Since the index hit 2352.72 on 5/18/2017, it reverse up to 2389.06 before around 8 points pullback. There are 2 wave counts possible for the index.

The first is bull wave count. Please refer to 4/301/2017 blog that the reverse head and shoulder pattern still is valid.
http://faithwithseedbest.blogspot.com/2017/04/4302017-sp500-wave-structure-analysis.html

  • wave 5-3-5-1: 2405.77
  • wave 5-3-5-2: 2352.72
  • wave 5-3-5-3: target 2438 (wait and see if it can break out 2406)
  • wave 5-3-5-4: wait for where wave 5-3-5-3 stop.
The second is bear wave count.

http://schrts.co/hb2qpF

  • wave 5-3-4-a: 2322.25
  • wave 5-3-4-b: 2405.77
  • wave 5-3-4-c:
    • first possible target: 2320
    • second possible target: 2300
    • third possible target: 2285

After wave 5-3-4, then wave 5-3-5 will start.

How to tell it will evolve into a bull or bear path: watch the recent low 2352.72, if not break this support, the bull path still is valid.

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.

注意短期个股风险

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NYA50R 指标是表示NYSE的个股在50日均线上的个股的百分比。 这个指标跌破50之后的反抽如果失败，很多个股会加速跌破50MA， 造成这些个股的较大损失； 手上个股仓位重的建议短期关注弱势个股的止损设置。 大盘指数SPY   QQQ   DIA  短期风险不大（一周内）。

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